The paper introduces a model‑agnostic inference framework for partially identified causal effects that leverages covariate information without requiring discrete covariates or accurate conditional distribution estimates. Using duality theory for optimal transport, the method delivers uniformly valid inference in randomized experiments, is doubly robust in observational settings, achieves asymptotic unbiasedness when nuisance parameters converge semiparametrically, and allows multiplier‑bootstrap selection of covariates and models while remaining computationally efficient. Empirical applications show the approach consistently narrows identified sets and confidence intervals without imposing extra structural assumptions.
By Wenlong Ji, Lihua Lei, Asher Spector
arXiv:2606. 25169v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Sampling from an unnormalized target by reversing an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion requires the score of each noise-perturbed marginal.
By Alois Duston, Tan Bui-Thanh
The paper investigates how to transport the full distribution of treatment effects from a source site to a target site in a cross‑site, one‑armed design where only control units are observed in the target. It proposes learning a transformation between sites via optimal transport on control samples, then applying this transformation to the source treated sample to generate a synthetic target treated distribution. The authors prove convergence of this synthetic distribution to the true target distribution and validate the method with simulations and a patient‑derived xenograft data application.
By Borna Bateni, Yubai Yuan, Qi Xu, Annie Qu
arXiv:2608. 00701v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reweighting source samples to match a target covariate distribution is a standard response to distribution shift when generalizing evidence from one population to another.
By Ying Jin, Ying Jin, Dominik Rothenh\"ausler
arXiv:2608. 01547v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Drifting objectives compare a target and model distribution through a vector field observed noisily at finitely many locations.
By Sam Andersson, Ricky Mol\'en
arXiv:2606. 25169v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sampling from an unnormalized target by reversing an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck diffusion requires the score of each noise-perturbed marginal.
By Alois Duston, Tan Bui Tanh
arXiv:2606. 22775v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Distribution shift between training and deployment is a pervasive challenge for modern AI systems.
By Zhewen Hou, Tian Zheng
arXiv:2602. 22083v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal identification functionals often require integration over conditional densities of continuous variables, such as those arising in nonparametric identification theory of total and mediated causal effects in DAGs with hidden variables.
By Xiaxian Ou, Razieh Nabi
arXiv:2606. 07914v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study component recovery and mixing-matrix estimation from unlabeled finite mixtures whose observable distributions share the same latent components but have unknown mixing weights.
By Takafumi Kanamori, Yushi Hirose, Shohei Yamamoto
arXiv:2604. 00915v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimation of heterogeneous long-term treatment effects (HLTEs) is relevant for personalized decision-making in marketing, economics, and medicine, where short-term observational datasets are often combined with long-term observational datasets.
By Haorui Ma, Dennis Frauen, Valentyn Melnychuk, Stefan Feuerriegel
GeoDose-CP introduces a graph‑local conformal inference framework for estimating localized stochastic potential outcomes when dealing with continuous or mixed continuous‑atomic treatments in Earth observation data. The method jointly models intervention‑induced treatment shifts, outcome‑scale Jacobians, and spatial residual dependence, and includes exact weighted candidate inversion, a scalable sparse approximation, and a refusal mechanism for inadequate support. Evaluation on controlled experiments, MineDoseBench, and a multi‑mine study in New South Wales demonstrates high selective coverage and identifies limitations when longitudinal treatment data are unavailable.
By Md Khalid Hasan Sakib, Dristi Datta, Manoranjan Paul, Davina White
arXiv:2507. 00260v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: When predictors are statistically dependent, the appropriate definition of feature importance depends on the operational goal.
By Jin-Hong Du, Kathryn Roeder, Larry Wasserman