arXiv AI

Validating Causal Abstraction Metrics on Simulated Complex Systems

arXiv:2607. 00267v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A central goal of science is to produce valid explanations of complex systems: high-level causal accounts that faithfully reflect the behavior of lower-level mechanisms.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Unsupervised Causal Abstractions Discovery

arXiv:2606. 19594v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal abstractions formalize when a high-level structural causal model (SCM) captures the interventional behavior of a lower-level SCM.

By Th\'eo Saulus, Simon Lacoste-Julien, Dhanya Sridhar
arXiv AI
Sep 4

A Computationally Feasible Framework for Causal Probabilistic Explanation

The paper introduces Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI), a framework that blends actual causality (AC) with Pearl’s probability of necessity and sufficiency to provide tractable, causally grounded explanations. PCI reframes explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model, enabling efficient approximation via Monte Carlo sampling. The authors evaluate PCI on synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating consistency with AC, scalability, and applicability to complex continuous systems and large-scale causal machine learning models.

By Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman, Andy Zane, Poorva Garg, Emily Bunnapradist, Sankaran Vaidyanathan, Jack Feser, Drew Lehe, Eli Bingham
arXiv AI
Jul 8

From Graphs to Gradients: Physics-Inspired Structural Attribution for Cyber-Physical IoT Systems and Beyond

arXiv:2607. 05563v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Interpretable explanation methods in Artificial Intelligence aim to uncover the underlying causes and their effects, enabling a deeper understanding of why a system behaves in a certain way under different inputs.

By Spyridon Evangelatos, Christos Diou, Georgios Th. Papadopoulos, Evangelos Markakis, Panagiotis Sarigiannidis
arXiv AI
Aug 11

TempoBench: Reasoning Execution Without Causal Attribution Is Just Simulation

arXiv:2510. 27544v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Current training paradigms, optimized for long-horizon reasoning trace execution, have made Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at pattern matching and forward simulation of reasoning, but underperform at counterfactual causal understanding and reasoning.

By Nikolaus Holzer, William Fishell, Baishakhi Ray, Mark Santolucito