The paper presents a method for partially identifying counterfactual queries without requiring a fully specified causal graph. By exploiting the topological ordering implied by the query itself, the authors transform the identification problem into a linear programming task, enabling bounds on arbitrary counterfactual and nested counterfactual queries. They demonstrate the tightness of these bounds and illustrate the approach on several case studies, showing its usefulness even when causal knowledge is incomplete.
By Eric Rossetto, Alessandro Antonucci
Counterfactual reasoning (asking what would have happened, had a decision been different) is a powerful tool for identifying causes of failure and explaining the behaviour of AI systems in sequential...
arXiv:2607. 22045v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Counterfactual explanations are a prominent approach in explainable artificial intelligence (xAI), providing actionable guidance on what input changes would alter a model's prediction to a desired outcome.
By Oleksii Furman, {\L}ukasz Lenkiewicz, Marcel Musia{\l}ek, Maciej Zi\k{e}ba
The paper introduces Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI), a framework that blends actual causality (AC) with Pearl’s probability of necessity and sufficiency to provide tractable, causally grounded explanations. PCI reframes explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model, enabling efficient approximation via Monte Carlo sampling. The authors evaluate PCI on synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating consistency with AC, scalability, and applicability to complex continuous systems and large-scale causal machine learning models.
By Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman, Andy Zane, Poorva Garg, Emily Bunnapradist, Sankaran Vaidyanathan, Jack Feser, Drew Lehe, Eli Bingham
arXiv:2606. 19361v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Identification conditions describe the computability of a target query or parameter of interest as a function of the type and amount of information available.
By Lucius E. J. Bynum, Rajesh Ranganath, Kyunghyun Cho
FCx is a new algorithm that generates counterfactual explanations while explicitly enforcing feasibility constraints. It uses a modified Variational Autoencoder with a multi‑factor loss to produce realistic, low‑cost counterfactuals that satisfy both hard constraints supplied by users and soft constraints inferred via causal inference. Experiments on four public datasets demonstrate that FCx matches state‑of‑the‑art performance across multiple metrics while guaranteeing feasibility.
By Kleopatra Markou, Vana Kalogeraki, Dimitrios Gunopulos
CausalProfiler is a synthetic benchmark generator designed to evaluate causal machine learning (Causal ML) methods more rigorously and transparently. It randomly samples causal models, data, queries, and ground truths based on explicit design choices across observation, intervention, and counterfactual reasoning levels, providing coverage guarantees and transparent assumptions. The authors demonstrate its utility by testing several state‑of‑the‑art methods under diverse conditions, both within and outside the identification regime, highlighting the insights CausalProfiler can reveal.
By Panayiotis Panayiotou, Audrey Poinsot, Alessandro Leite, Nicolas Chesneau, Marc Schoenauer, \"Ozg\"ur \c{S}im\c{s}ek
arXiv:2610.08689v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Counterfactual inference in Gaussian-process structural causal models (GP-SCMs) has been developed primarily for continuous endogenous variables, limit...
By Juliette Sinnott, Amir-Hossein Karimi, Mohammad Kohandel
The paper introduces causal foundation models that can bound the effects of interventions and counterfactuals using only observational data. It defines a canonical prior with full support over structural causal models with discrete observables, enabling the translation of counterfactual bounding into learning distributions over functions that map data and structural assumptions to causal queries. This approach extends causal foundational modelling to partially-identifiable causal effects, where unobserved confounding leads to multiple compatible values for the effect.
By Alexis Bellot, Anish Dhir
Counterfactual (CF) explanations identify changes that alter an input's classification. While existing methods produce realistic and low-cost CFs, they often fail to ensure feasibility, by suggesting...
ProximalFM is a transformer‑based model that uses prior‑data fitted networks (PFNs) to perform Bayesian proximal causal inference under hidden confounding. By training on synthetic data generated from structural causal models with oracle counterfactuals, it amortizes the Bayesian operator inversion into a single forward pass, producing posterior estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). The approach consistently outperforms prior methods across various proximal regimes, especially when latent confounding is strong and proxy variables are weakly informative, and it requires no dataset‑specific tuning.
By Christophe Muller, Ayub Kharel, Alex Luedtke, Chan Park, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, Juan L. Gamella, Rahul Krishnan, Ricardo Silva, Jakob Zeitler
Causal inference provides a set of principles and tools that allow one to combine data and knowledge about an environment to reason with questions of counterfactual nature, i. e.