arXiv:2510. 27544v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Current training paradigms, optimized for long-horizon reasoning trace execution, have made Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at pattern matching and forward simulation of reasoning, but underperform at counterfactual causal understanding and reasoning.
By Nikolaus Holzer, William Fishell, Baishakhi Ray, Mark Santolucito
Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as integrated data-science agents, combining abstract reasoning with advanced tool use. Yet the relevant benchmark landscape largely divides into symbolic causal reasoning benchmarks without realistic data analysis or data analysis benchmarks without a principled causal data-generating structure.
arXiv:2607. 08093v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as integrated data-science agents, combining abstract reasoning with advanced tool use.
By Andrej Leban, Yuekai Sun
arXiv:2602. 06337v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal inference is essential for decision-making but remains challenging for non-experts.
By Junqi Chen, Sirui Chen, Chaochao Lu
arXiv:2607. 18100v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Extended reasoning has become standard for frontier Large Language Models (LLMs), yet the trajectories these models produce remain largely uncontrollable.
By Sheldon Yu, Tong Yu, Xunyi Jiang, Rohan Surana, Gagan Mundada, Sungchul Kim, Lina Yao, Julian McAuley, Junda Wu
arXiv:2602. 20094v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As large language models (LLMs) witness increasing deployment in complex, high-stakes decision-making scenarios, it becomes imperative to ground their reasoning in causality rather than spurious correlations.
By Yuzhe Wang, Yaochen Zhu, Jundong Li
arXiv:2606. 05402v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large reasoning models (LRMs) produce reasoning traces with non-linear structures, such as backtracking and self-correction, that complicate the evaluation and monitoring of the reasoning process.
By Jinu Lee, Shivam Agarwal, Amruta Parulekar, Siddarth Madala, Dilek Hakkani-Tur, Julia Hockenmaier
arXiv:2608. 03972v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: On-policy training has emerged as a powerful post-training paradigm for improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models, and is often enhanced by golden trajectories from stronger expert models.
By Jinhe Bi, Chennan Zhou, Zengjie Jin, Aniri, Shuo Lu, Wenke Huang, Hu Cao, Xun Xiao, Zhihong Zhu, Volker Tresp, Fei Shen, Yunpu Ma, Tat-Seng Chua
arXiv:2510. 13940v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has focused on test-time scaling to improve reasoning via increased inference computation, but often at the cost of efficiency.
By Zhen Yang, Mingyang Zhang, Feng Chen, Ganggui Ding, Liang Hou, Xin Tao, Ying-Cong Chen
arXiv:2606. 09092v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Theory of Mind (ToM) is a must-acquire skill for modern foundation model systems to operate effectively and safely in the real world.
By Jike Zhong, Yuxiang Lai, Ming Li, Yuheng Li, Wuao Liu, Behzad Dariush, Konstantinos Psounis, Shao-Yuan Lo
On-policy training has emerged as a powerful post-training paradigm for improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models, and is often enhanced by golden trajectories from stronger expert models. However, when the expert fails on harder problems, existing trajectory-guided methods lose their main source of supervision, and these failed trajectories are typically discarded as negative samples.
arXiv:2607. 11889v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models trained on unrestricted internet corpora inevitably embed information from the future, introducing lookahead bias that compromises the validity of backtests and causal inference in finance and the social sciences.
By Bryan Kelly, Semyon Malamud, Johannes Schwab, Teng Andrea Xu