Causal Identification from Counterfactual Data: Completeness and Bounding Results
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The paper presents a method for partially identifying counterfactual queries without requiring a fully specified causal graph. By exploiting the topological ordering implied by the query itself, the authors transform the identification problem into a linear programming task, enabling bounds on arbitrary counterfactual and nested counterfactual queries. They demonstrate the tightness of these bounds and illustrate the approach on several case studies, showing its usefulness even when causal knowledge is incomplete.
Counterfactual reasoning (asking what would have happened, had a decision been different) is a powerful tool for identifying causes of failure and explaining the behaviour of AI systems in sequential...
arXiv:2607. 22045v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Counterfactual explanations are a prominent approach in explainable artificial intelligence (xAI), providing actionable guidance on what input changes would alter a model's prediction to a desired outcome.
The paper introduces Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI), a framework that blends actual causality (AC) with Pearl’s probability of necessity and sufficiency to provide tractable, causally grounded explanations. PCI reframes explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model, enabling efficient approximation via Monte Carlo sampling. The authors evaluate PCI on synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating consistency with AC, scalability, and applicability to complex continuous systems and large-scale causal machine learning models.
arXiv:2606. 19361v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Identification conditions describe the computability of a target query or parameter of interest as a function of the type and amount of information available.
FCx is a new algorithm that generates counterfactual explanations while explicitly enforcing feasibility constraints. It uses a modified Variational Autoencoder with a multi‑factor loss to produce realistic, low‑cost counterfactuals that satisfy both hard constraints supplied by users and soft constraints inferred via causal inference. Experiments on four public datasets demonstrate that FCx matches state‑of‑the‑art performance across multiple metrics while guaranteeing feasibility.