arXiv:2606. 19501v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decentralized finance exposes supervisors to fast-moving, networked credit risks.
arXiv:2609.05905v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM agents are increasingly used for live forecasting, where they retrieve up-to-date information and produce estimates for unresolved future events....
arXiv:2602. 03981v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Credit exposure in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is often implicit and token-mediated, creating a dense web of inter-protocol dependencies.
The paper investigates when forecasting agents should employ different behaviors—retrieval, reasoning, deferring to market priors, or using historical analogs—on binary forecasting tasks. It finds that the optimal mechanism depends on the data source, with structured analogs excelling for some processes and market or conservative baselines for others. The authors propose ReliabilityRoute, a rule‑based system that steers agent behavior using reliability features, achieving competitive performance across multiple LLM versions while highlighting that more reasoning is not always better.
arXiv:2511. 23276v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Effective HFMD surveillance requires forecasts capturing both time-series patterns and contextual drivers such as school calendars, weather, and policy or surveillance reports.
arXiv:2606. 19887v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Existing safety benchmarks target general adversarial scenarios but miss finance-specific risks.
arXiv:2609.24862v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agentic time series forecasting concerns systems whose underlying mechanisms evolve, making the relative effectiveness of numerical models, reasoning s...
The paper introduces a framework for evaluating AI systems that not only checks final labels but also tracks the reasoning behind them through three core sources—grounds, norms, and authority—forming an eight-cell counterfactual judgment cube. It defines minimal source replacement sets, called judgment receipts, to explain changes in verdicts and provides certification cost bounds for black-box evaluators. The authors present ReasonBench, a benchmark with 19,520 cases, and demonstrate that while high standard accuracy can mask robustness issues, receipt accuracy reveals significant gaps in reasoning consistency across different models.
The paper introduces ontological trust, a task‑conditioned property of trajectory prefixes, and presents RGE, an online monitor that decomposes trust into Role, Goal, and Evidence. RGE uses LLMs only for structured task and step representations, while trust updates and interventions are deterministic, producing a replayable and auditable trust trajectory. Evaluated on a cross‑domain corpus, RGE outperforms rule‑, judge‑, and shield‑style baselines, achieving over 93% Drift F1 and maintaining high benign coverage.
arXiv:2606. 15640v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Audit risk assessment increasingly benefits from combining heterogeneous evidence sources, yet existing approaches typically produce point predictions without quantifying how well different evidence streams agree.
The paper introduces Runtime Assurance Contracts (RAC) as a formal policy framework for high‑risk AI agents, addressing the "assurance‑transition gap" by binding autonomy boundaries, component eligibility, evidence state, transition policy, human‑review capacity, and non‑compensatory gates. RAC allows soft metrics to influence routing while mandating retries, switches, escalations, deferrals, or stops when mandatory gates fail or are unknown, ensuring aggregate performance cannot alone authorize action. The authors define the contract, evidence record, permission rule, and five invariants, and evaluate RAC through deterministic failure‑injection studies, hand‑authored traces, and a prospective synthetic holdout, comparing it to score‑only and restricted protocol baselines.
arXiv:2606. 02604v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: ESG and climate risk data remain fragmented across heterogeneous Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 reporting environments, while conventional validation pipelines lack provenance aware auditability, hidden drift detection, and reproducibility oriented governance.
arXiv:2607. 19356v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tool-using LLM agents increasingly execute high-impact actions, making runtime safety monitoring essential.