Hedge-Bench is a benchmark comprising 92 real-world environments derived from hedge fund analysts' reasoning traces, designed to test AI agents’ ability to forecast future events from incomplete information. Agents are evaluated on joint success—correct forecasts with over 60% research coverage—across 11 frontier models, achieving rates between 2.54% and 31.52%. Training Muse‑Glimmer with GRPO on 165 environments improves coverage on held‑out tasks and demonstrates generalization to out‑of‑distribution evaluations.
arXiv:2606. 03918v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI agents can increasingly handle the mechanical tasks of financial analysis: retrieving documents, calculating formulas, updating spreadsheets.
The paper introduces FABench, a scalable backtesting environment designed to evaluate forecasting agents. FABench automatically discovers events, generates questions, and resolves outcomes for any past forecast date, allowing continuous renewal beyond model training cutoffs. In initial tests, retrieval improves Brier scores across eight models, with top agents matching or surpassing market consensus on 54 Polymarket-linked questions, yet analysis shows persistent evidence‑weighting failures that highlight room for improvement.
FinForesight is a diagnostic backtesting benchmark designed to evaluate deep research systems for financial forecasting. It tests four forecasting tasks—valuation, return ranking, event direction, and future financial fundamentals—across Chinese, U.S., and Hong Kong markets, while also including two diagnostic tasks for counterfactual reasoning and financial calculation. The framework limits evidence to what was available at the forecast date and compares pretraining-era, post-cutoff, and live evaluations to assess how well controlled backtests predict future performance.
arXiv:2607. 27853v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Powered by advances in LLMs and autonomous agents, deep research has become one of the most widely adopted agentic products.
The paper introduces an agentic forecasting environment built on 2,100+ resolved Polymarket questions, where a language model (Qwen3.5-35B-A3B) learns to gather evidence during rollout via web search, page reading, and financial time series, all filtered to avoid post‑cutoff leaks. Training with single‑epoch GRPO and a Brier‑score reward improves calibration by 30‑40% and reduces search attempts, while the trained policy outperforms four frontier models in evidence‑based forecasting, achieving lower soft‑Brier scores at roughly 5% of the inference cost. The authors release the environment, dataset, and per‑rollout records as a reusable harness for temporal forecasting agents.
arXiv:2608. 11683v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI agents are increasingly deployed for professional investment research, yet no benchmark captures the complexity of the full investor workflow.
AgenticFinBench is a new benchmark comprising 230 real‑world financial tasks across eight categories, two languages, and four complexity levels, designed to capture the breadth and open‑ended nature of financial AI work. It introduces a reference‑free evaluation framework that uses question‑specific rubrics and a two‑stage claim audit to detect hallucinations, aligning assessment more closely with real‑world financial practice. Experiments on 18 agent configurations show that ignoring hallucinations inflates performance, that harness differences drive evidence grounding more than model differences, and that task complexity reduces quality scores, highlighting challenges in explaining financial impacts and comparing data consistently.
arXiv:2608. 16386v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial agents must do more than recall domain knowledge: they must be both reliable, executing precise operations over grounded evidence, and executive, sustaining long-horizon research whose conclusions remain auditable.
arXiv:2609.36914v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-training has been shown to significantly improve language models' performance on tasks with verifiable outcomes, including mathematical reasoning,...
The study investigates whether adding inference-time reasoning to large language models (LLMs) improves trading performance. Using a controlled experiment across DeepSeek, GPT, and Gemini models, the authors varied reasoning effort while keeping other variables constant and evaluated over a full year of U.S. equities under three input conditions. Results show that additional reasoning does not reliably increase net portfolio returns and can even lead to nonmonotonic performance and unstable outcomes.
arXiv:2606. 24950v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text.
AI agents are increasingly deployed for professional investment research, yet no benchmark captures the complexity of the full investor workflow. Existing benchmarks mainly target financial data extraction, a narrow slice that current models have largely saturated, while reference-based metrics and generic LLM-as-a-judge scoring fall short on the open-ended, long-form answers that real analyst queries demand.