arXiv Machine Learning
From Narrative to Auditable Forecasts: A Structured Scaffold for Agentic Forecasting
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arXiv AI
Sep 2
LEAP: Likelihood Elicitation and Aggregation for LLM-based Probabilistic Forecasting
LEAP (Likelihood Elicitation and Aggregation for Probabilistic forecasting) is a new approach that reorganizes how evidence is used in LLM-based forecasting systems. Instead of a monolithic prediction that aggregates all evidence at once, LEAP examines each evidence item separately, elicits likelihood parameters, and combines them with an explicit prior to produce a posterior distribution. The method supports continuous, single-choice, and multi-choice forecasts and has been shown to improve prediction and calibration metrics across models on a benchmark covering forecasting, information-seeking, and browsing tasks.
arXiv AI
Jun 2
Bridging the Last Mile of Time Series Forecasting with LLM Agents
arXiv:2606. 02497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting has advanced rapidly, especially with the emergence of foundation models that show strong zero-shot performance on numerical extrapolation.
arXiv AI
Jun 11
WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning
arXiv:2606. 11816v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information.
arXiv AI
Aug 25
LLM-based Agents for Forecasting and Prediction: Methods, Training, Evaluation, and Applications
arXiv:2608.23058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) now support forecasting systems that combine language-based reasoning with temporal data, evidence retrieval, external too...
arXiv Computation and Language
3d ago
Information Specialization and Constrained Synthesis in Multi-Agent LLM Forecasting: A Prospective Live-Study of the 2026 FIFA World Cup
The study evaluates a multi‑agent large language model system for forecasting outcomes of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Two specialist agents—one quantitative and one news‑focused—produce forecasts that are then reviewed by a critic and combined by a meta‑agent. Results show the news specialist performs best, matching betting market accuracy, while the meta‑agent adds little beyond the specialists’ predictions.
arXiv AI
Aug 5
CastFSR: A Fast--Slow--Reflect Agentic Reasoning Framework for Context-Aware Time Series Forecasting
arXiv:2608. 03031v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting is fundamental to decision-making in complex systems, where future dynamics are influenced not only by historical observations but also by evolving contextual features.