arXiv AI

Confidence Reasoning Graphs: Structured Confidence Estimation for LLM Agents

The paper introduces Confidence Reasoning Graphs (CRGs), an inference-time framework that estimates the probability an LLM agent has successfully completed its task using a single trajectory without requiring privileged model access or training data. CRGs decompose the agent’s overall claim of success into contextualized sub-claims, estimate confidence for each terminal claim based on trajectory evidence, and aggregate these into an overall confidence estimate. Experiments across multiple benchmarks, models, and agent frameworks show that CRGs produce better-calibrated confidence and more effective risk-aware decision making than existing verbalized, sampling-based, and white-box surrogate methods, while also providing transparent, auditable evidence for each estimate.

arXiv Computer Vision
Sep 22

Monitorable Chart Reasoning Agents via Verifiable Process Rewards

The paper introduces Chart‑RVR, a reinforcement‑learning framework that trains chart‑reasoning agents to produce monitorable, verifiable outputs. It decomposes reasoning into three auditable stages—Structure, Evidence, and Derivation—allowing stakeholders to trace how the model reads the chart, extracts data, and computes the answer. Experiments on six benchmarks show that Chart‑RVR matches or exceeds state‑of‑the‑art accuracy while delivering rationales that are far more verifiable and evidence‑grounded than existing methods.

By Sanchit Sinha, Oana Frunza, Kashif Rasul, Aidong Zhang
arXiv AI
Sep 17

Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agents

The paper introduces XConf, an experiential confidence estimator that augments a language model’s current inference with a record of its past graded episodes. By recalling similar past tasks and reflecting on past outcomes, XConf generates confidence scores without accessing logits or updating weights, achieving superior discrimination and calibration across diverse benchmarks. The method demonstrates significant gains in selective prediction, improving success rates on agent tasks by up to 8.7 points.

By Caiqi Zhang, Xiaochen Zhu, Chengzu Li, Yulong Chen, Dharshan Kumaran, Nigel Collier
arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 27

ReFIne: A Framework for Trustworthy Large Reasoning Models with Reliability, Faithfulness, and Interpretability

ReFIne is a training framework that augments large reasoning models with three trustworthiness properties: interpretability, faithfulness, and reliability. It combines supervised fine‑tuning with GRPO to produce structured, tag‑based reasoning traces, explicitly disclose decisive information, and provide self‑assessments of soundness and confidence. Applied to Qwen3 models, ReFIne improves interpretability by 44.0 %, faithfulness by 18.8 %, and reliability by 42.4 % on mathematical benchmarks.

By Chung-En Sun, Ge Yan, Akshay Kulkarni, Tsui-Wei Weng
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 14

Critic Experience Bank: Self-Evolving Step-Level Confidence Estimation for LLM Agents

LLM agents act in external environments where each action changes the state that later decisions condition on, and where a single wrong step can waste interaction budget or trigger irreversible side effects long before the final failure is observed. Reliable deployment therefore requires \emph{step-level confidence estimation}: a calibrated probability that each proposed action is productive, available \emph{before} the action is executed.

arXiv AI
Jul 15

Critic Experience Bank: Self-Evolving Step-Level Confidence Estimation for LLM Agents

arXiv:2607. 12397v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM agents act in external environments where each action changes the state that later decisions condition on, and where a single wrong step can waste interaction budget or trigger irreversible side effects long before the final failure is observed.

By Yaopei Zeng, Congchao Wang, JianHang Chen, Nan Wang, Yurui Chang, Lu Lin
arXiv AI
Jun 16

VeriGraph: Towards Verifiable Data-Analytic Agents

arXiv:2606. 16603v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM-based agents have demonstrated strong capabilities in data-intensive analytical tasks, yet their outputs are rarely verifiable: a reliance on linear text trajectories makes their reasoning difficult to audit.

By Jiajie Jin, Zhao Yang, Wenle Liao, Yuyang Hu, Guanting Dong, Xiaoxi Li, Yutao Zhu, Zhicheng Dou
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 1

CAST: Critique-Aware Supervision for Training Reliable Long-Horizon Tool-Calling Agents

CAST is a critique‑aware training framework that transforms sparse task outcomes into action‑level supervision for both critique learning and policy optimization. By analyzing agent trajectories, CAST synthesizes structured rationales that explain action validity under partial observability, enabling the creation of richer training data. Fine‑tuned Qwen3‑family models trained with CAST show significant reliability gains, outperforming GPT‑OSS‑120B by over 10% on Retail tasks and improving Telehealth performance by 9% in an out‑of‑domain setting.

By Amir Saeidi, Zehua Zhang, Rishitosh Singh, Naman Ahuja, Vivek Gupta, Ali Payani, Gaowen Liu, Jayanth Srinivasa, Chitta Baral
arXiv AI
Aug 11

From Trajectories to Evidence: Auditable Experimental Records for Industrial Research Agents

arXiv:2608. 05235v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Research agents increasingly conduct multi-round machine-learning experiments in industrial recommendation settings and retain the resulting trajectories to guide later decisions.

By Zijie Zhuang, Changxin Lao, Pengbo Xu, Hanwen Xu, Ruochen Yang, Yingzhi He, Peng Zhang, Jiangxia Cao, Yusheng Huang, Guohong Mu, Jian Liang, Ruiming Tang, Shuang Yang, Zhaojie Liu, Wenwu Ou, Kun Gai