arXiv AI
Jul 7
Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents
arXiv:2607. 03015v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI.
When do prophets profit in prediction markets?
arXiv:2607. 06166v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events.
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arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 2
Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting
arXiv:2607. 00164v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards can in principle train calibrated probabilistic forecasters, since a proper scoring rule such as the Brier score is computed from outcomes alone and is minimized in expectation by the true probability.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 24
Evaluation Metrics as Averaged Outcomes of Fair Gambles
arXiv:2401. 14483v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In the current practices of machine learning, the evaluation of forecasts has become a cornerstone of scientific progress.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9
Proper Calibeating
arXiv:2605. 26703v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The classic concept of "calibrated forecasts" and its more recent refinement, "calibeating," are defined with respect to the standard quadratic scoring rule.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21
FinBench: Time-Gated Calibration and Uncertainty Benchmarking for Agentic Financial Forecasting
arXiv:2607. 16229v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as components of agentic systems that observe, plan, and act.
arXiv AI
Jun 4
Expectations vs. Realities: The Cost of MSE-Optimal Forecasting Under Conditional Uncertainty
arXiv:2606. 04342v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-step time series forecasting (MSF) is commonly evaluated using point-wise error metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), implicitly treating the conditional mean as a sufficient target.
arXiv AI
Jul 21
FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches
arXiv:2607. 17765v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce WC2026-Agents, a benchmark and dataset for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as autonomous forecasting agents on real, future events.
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4
Conformal bandits: bringing statistical validity and reward efficiency under weak arm separability
arXiv:2512. 09850v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce Conformal Bandits, a novel framework integrating Conformal Prediction (CP) into bandit problems, a classic paradigm for sequential decision-making under uncertainty.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 14
Bet on Features: Anytime-Valid and Feature-Aware Auditing of Conditional Quantile Forecasters
arXiv:2607. 11653v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Black-box conditional quantile forecasts are widely used for sequential decisions under asymmetric costs, such as inventory planning in supply chain management.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 3
Learning to Bet for Horizon-Aware Anytime-Valid Testing
arXiv:2603. 19551v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We develop horizon-aware anytime-valid tests and confidence sequences for bounded means under a strict deadline $N$.
arXiv AI
Aug 11
Business Arena: Benchmarking LLM Agents in a Realistic Marketplace
arXiv:2608. 08621v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Running a business is a challenging form of intelligent work.
arXiv AI
Jul 28
AI Strategy: How to Choose What AI Product to Implement
arXiv:2607. 23733v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Firms struggle to choose AI projects that pay off: two projects can look equally promising to smart, motivated stakeholders and yet deserve opposite decisions.