arXiv:2607. 16229v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as components of agentic systems that observe, plan, and act.
Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize financial narratives but may express high confidence when evidence is sparse, stale, or contradictory. This failure is especially consequential in forecasting, where filings, news, prices, volume, and technical signals can disagree.
arXiv:2609.36914v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-training has been shown to significantly improve language models' performance on tasks with verifiable outcomes, including mathematical reasoning,...
arXiv:2608. 03259v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As time-series foundation models have emerged, the need for benchmarks that can evaluate their forecasting ability in meaningful ways has become increasingly important.
arXiv:2502. 18834v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies.
FinRiskAtlas is a Chinese-language benchmark designed to evaluate large language models (LLMs) for financial risk review by focusing on decision‑aligned tasks rather than generic financial knowledge. It contains 9,742 instances across 53 task families, including 42 domain‑knowledge families and 11 downstream review operations defined by explicit evaluation contracts. The extended FinRisk‑Ask framework replays 680 pre‑action states from 104 professional trajectories, withholding future evidence during inference to assess evidence‑state control and request targeting. Results across 33 model configurations show that operation‑level evaluation yields distinct rankings and that knowledge‑based shortlisting can incur significant regret, while frequent use of the Ask branch does not necessarily improve evidence acquisition, highlighting gaps in broad financial capability scores.
The paper investigates when forecasting agents should employ different behaviors—retrieval, reasoning, deferring to market priors, or using historical analogs—on binary forecasting tasks. It finds that the optimal mechanism depends on the data source, with structured analogs excelling for some processes and market or conservative baselines for others. The authors propose ReliabilityRoute, a rule‑based system that steers agent behavior using reliability features, achieving competitive performance across multiple LLM versions while highlighting that more reasoning is not always better.
arXiv:2607. 15414v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools for processing the heterogeneous information environments of modern financial markets.
arXiv:2605. 03460v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series (TS) reasoning models (TSRMs) have shown promising capabilities in general domains, yet they consistently fail in the financial domain, which exhibits unique characteristics.
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
arXiv:2607. 24889v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial models combine public disclosures with analyst assumptions to produce forecasts and valuations.
arXiv:2609.23703v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial language models can transform unstructured firm-specific news into structured decision signals, but financial AI research lacks an integrat...
arXiv:2608. 12259v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial forecasting models are typically developed in full precision, yet production deployment often requires low-precision inference to reduce memory and computational cost.