Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize financial narratives but may express high confidence when evidence is sparse, stale, or contradictory. This failure is especially consequential in forecasting, where filings, news, prices, volume, and technical signals can disagree.
arXiv:2608. 03259v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As time-series foundation models have emerged, the need for benchmarks that can evaluate their forecasting ability in meaningful ways has become increasingly important.
By Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo, Seunghan Lee, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Minjae Kim, Sungdong Yoo, Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin Ahn
arXiv:2502. 18834v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies.
By Yifan Hu, Yuante Li, Peiyuan Liu, Yuxia Zhu, Naiqi Li, Tao Dai, Shu-tao Xia, Dawei Cheng, Changjun Jiang
arXiv:2607. 15414v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools for processing the heterogeneous information environments of modern financial markets.
By Geofrey Ntale
arXiv:2605. 03460v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series (TS) reasoning models (TSRMs) have shown promising capabilities in general domains, yet they consistently fail in the financial domain, which exhibits unique characteristics.
By Seunghan Lee, Jun Seo, Jaehoon Lee, Sungdong Yoo, Minjae Kim, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin Ahn
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
By Jiaze Sun, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Ruiyang Ni, Yize Liu, Haonan Chen, Ke-Wei Huang
arXiv:2607. 24889v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial models combine public disclosures with analyst assumptions to produce forecasts and valuations.
By Jiacheng Lu, Sinuo Wang, Wentao Zhao, Rui Sun, Cheng Hua, Tao Song, Hui Cai, Beidi Luan, Zhengze Wu, Lingjing Teng, Yijia He, Jing Li, Daxin Jiang, Zuo Bai, Haibing Guan
arXiv:2608. 12259v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial forecasting models are typically developed in full precision, yet production deployment often requires low-precision inference to reduce memory and computational cost.
By Junyi Ye, Ivy Gateri Wanjiku
arXiv:2608. 06108v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Investment competence is inherently personalized: the same market evidence can justify different actions for investors with different goals, horizons, portfolios, and risk boundaries.
By Yuanhong Jiang, Jingjie Zou, Zhenghong Lin, Xusheng Yu, Qiqi Huang, Shuai Jia, Shijie Dai
arXiv:2606. 24950v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text.
By Patara Trirat, Jin Myung Kwak, Jay Heo, Heejun Lee, Sung Ju Hwang
arXiv:2607. 12248v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large pretrained time-series models such as TimesFM are attractive for financial forecasting, but raw directional accuracy is a misleading scoreboard in equity markets.
By Taizhen Cheung, SA Kwon
arXiv:2606. 31522v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous financial agents initialized with explicit behavioral mandates such as "preserve capital" or "avoid speculative bets" that are meant to govern every decision throughout deployment.
By Muhammad Usman Safder (Steve), Ayesha Gull (Steve), Rania Elbadry (Steve), Fan Zhang (Steve), Yankai Chen (Steve), Xueqing Peng (Steve), Xue (Steve), Liu, Preslav Nakov, Zhuohan Xie