arXiv:2607. 03015v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI.
Summary generated by The Flow from the publisher's feed. The full article lives at arXiv AI.
arXiv:2607. 06166v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events.
arXiv:2607. 00164v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards can in principle train calibrated probabilistic forecasters, since a proper scoring rule such as the Brier score is computed from outcomes alone and is minimized in expectation by the true probability.
arXiv:2606. 02497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting has advanced rapidly, especially with the emergence of foundation models that show strong zero-shot performance on numerical extrapolation.
arXiv:2606. 18686v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting benchmarks for general-purpose AI systems usually inherit the constraints of the real world: outcomes resolve slowly, tail events are rare, and counterfactual questions are difficult to score.
arXiv:2605. 05580v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Quantitative trading agents have demonstrated substantial promise in automating factor discovery, signal aggregation, and portfolio execution.
arXiv:2606. 15917v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We use Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a recently devised sample and memory efficient reinforcement learning method, to finetune pretrained LLMs in the range of 1.