arXiv:2609.37119v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Recent approaches to reinforcement learning (RL) post-training for large language models increasingly remove the critic to reduce training instabilit...
By Hongyang Li, Xiao Li, Caesar Wu, Said Mammar, Gr\'egoire Danoy, Pascal Bouvry
The paper introduces an agentic forecasting environment built on 2,100+ resolved Polymarket questions, where a language model (Qwen3.5-35B-A3B) learns to gather evidence during rollout via web search, page reading, and financial time series, all filtered to avoid post‑cutoff leaks. Training with single‑epoch GRPO and a Brier‑score reward improves calibration by 30‑40% and reduces search attempts, while the trained policy outperforms four frontier models in evidence‑based forecasting, achieving lower soft‑Brier scores at roughly 5% of the inference cost. The authors release the environment, dataset, and per‑rollout records as a reusable harness for temporal forecasting agents.
By Yusuf Afifi, Artur Kiulian, Anton Polishko, Mykola Khandoga, Hamudi Naanaa, Alina Krasnobrizha
arXiv:2609.38850v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Decision models such as Jev answer questions with probabilities, which are only useful if they are calibrated. Open-source reproductions rely on superv...
By Zhimin Gao, Pichao Wang
arXiv:2607. 12397v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM agents act in external environments where each action changes the state that later decisions condition on, and where a single wrong step can waste interaction budget or trigger irreversible side effects long before the final failure is observed.
By Yaopei Zeng, Congchao Wang, JianHang Chen, Nan Wang, Yurui Chang, Lu Lin
The paper investigates how different proper scoring rules influence the performance and behavior of large language model (LLM) forecasters. Five scoring rules were compared as training objectives for binary forecasts of real-world events, revealing that while they all theoretically incentivize truthful probability reporting, they produce models with varying calibration, probability usage, and bias, information, and noise profiles. The Brier-trained model achieved the lowest Brier score and highest AUC-ROC, whereas the log-trained model achieved the best log score and lowest calibration error, indicating that scoring rule choice can shape both forecast accuracy and error structure.
By Benjamin Turtel, Paul Wilczewski, Kris Skotheim, Ville A. Satop\"a\"a, Philip E. Tetlock
arXiv:2607. 05904v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Training a language model against its own reference-free judgments (the premise of self-rewarding, self-play, and LLM-as-a-judge pipelines) assumes a model's verdict on a shown answer tracks correctness.
By Chenyu Zhou