arXiv Machine Learning

When GNNs Fail: Quantifying and Overcoming Temporal Correlation Volatility in Time Series

arXiv:2608. 07333v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction.

Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 7

When GNNs Fail: Quantifying and Overcoming Temporal Correlation Volatility in Time Series

Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction. Recent advances in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated strong perfor- mance by assuming a static graph topology and aggregating information from neighboring series.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

INDEQS: Informed Neural controlled Differential EQuationS

arXiv:2606. 19138v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for forecasting time series, but standard graph-based extensions typically learn spatial structure purely from data, even in settings where a directed graph structure is known a priori.

By Michael Detzel, Gabriel Nobis, Kristiyan Blagov, Juri Schubert, Jackie Ma, Wojciech Samek
arXiv AI
Jun 12

Lightweight and Interpretable Transformer via Mixed Graph Algorithm Unrolling for Traffic Forecast

arXiv:2505. 13102v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Unlike conventional "black-box" transformers with classical self-attention mechanism, we build a lightweight and interpretable transformer-like neural net by unrolling a mixed-graph-based optimization algorithm to forecast traffic with spatial and temporal dimensions.

By Ji Qi, Tam Thuc Do, Mingxiao Liu, Zhuoshi Pan, Yuzhe Li, Gene Cheung, H. Vicky Zhao
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 3

TIDFormer: Exploiting Temporal and Interactive Dynamics Makes A Great Dynamic Graph Transformer

arXiv:2506. 00431v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Due to the proficiency of self-attention mechanisms (SAMs) in capturing dependencies in sequence modeling, several existing dynamic graph neural networks (DGNNs) utilize Transformer architectures with various encoding designs to capture sequential evolutions of dynamic graphs.

By Jie Peng, Zhewei Wei, Yuhang Ye
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 13

Forking-Sequences: Statistically and Computationally Efficient Multi-Horizon Forecasting with Reduced Volatility

arXiv:2510. 04487v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While accuracy is a critical requirement for time series forecasting, an equally important desideratum is reasonable forecast volatility across forecast creation dates (FCDs).

By Willa Potosnak, Malcolm Wolff, Mengfei Cao, Ruijun Ma, Tatiana Konstantinova, Dmitry Efimov, Michael W. Mahoney, Boris Oreshkin, Kin G. Olivares
arXiv AI
Jul 23

Structured Latent Space Modeling over Multi-Scale Temporal Patches for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2607. 19404v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate time series encode structural patterns that unfold across multiple temporal scales, yet most forecasting backbones treat learned representations as transient byproducts of prediction, leaving the organizational geometry of these patterns underexploited.

By Xingsheng Chen, Deyu Yi, Siu-Ming Yiu