arXiv AI

Leveraging System-Level Observations to Inform Bayesian Learning of Model Parameters for Quantitative Verification

arXiv:2608. 03489v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Combining Bayesian learning and quantitative verification is a powerful toolset for analysing key quantitative properties of software systems, like reliability and response time.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Quantifying Aleatoric Uncertainty of In-Context Learning for Robust Measure of LLM Prediction Confidence

arXiv:2606. 19353v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In-Context Learning (ICL) allows LLMs to adapt to new tasks from a few demonstrations, but its reliability remains a concern: predictions are highly sensitive to both prompt design and the model's ability to understand the context, obscuring whether failures arise from data properties or model limitations.

By Jinseok Chung, Minkyoung Song, Hyunji Jung, Namhoon Lee
arXiv AI
Jul 1

BayesBench: Evaluating LLM Belief Trajectories Under Multi-Turn Evidence Accumulation

arXiv:2606. 30850v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are typically deployed in multi-turn conversations, where each turn provides new evidence that should reduce epistemic uncertainty about their environment.

By Ankur Samanta, Akshayaa Magesh, Tal Lancewicki, Ayush Jain, Youliang Yu, Paul Sajda, Kaveh Hassani, Aditya Modi, Daniel R. Jiang, Yonathan Efroni
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 2

Unveiling the Entropy Dynamics of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

arXiv:2606. 02020v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper investigates the entropy dynamics of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and uncovers a consistent two-phase structure: an Uncertainty Region of exploration transitioning sharply to a Confidence Region of convergence.

By Ting Xu, Xu He, Yupu Lu, Jiankai Sun, Dong Li, Wai Lam, Jianye Hao