arXiv:2607. 16927v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce Deep Adaptive Bayesian Screening (DABS), a method for performing adaptive factorial screening in high-dimensional discrete design spaces.
arXiv:2607. 28894v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Computational cognitive modeling seeks to infer latent cognitive mechanisms underlying observed behavior.
The paper introduces Generalised Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (GBOED), extending generalised Bayesian inference to experimental design. It replaces the likelihood in Bayesian updates with a loss function, deriving a new acquisition function called Gibbs expected information gain. Empirical results show that GBOED improves robustness against outliers and mis-specified outcome noise distributions.
arXiv:2512. 22999v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider problems of parameter estimation where design variables can be actively optimized to maximize information gain.
BoLT is a new benchmark designed to make black-box optimization research for large language model (LLM) tasks more accessible. It presents a suite of realistic LLM optimization problems—covering multi‑fidelity, multi‑objective, heteroscedastic noise, and high‑dimensional search spaces—grounded in thousands of real experiments and represented by lightweight surrogate models. The authors evaluate a wide range of Bayesian and other black‑box optimization methods on BoLT, finding that some BO techniques consistently outperform others and revealing gaps in current methods for LLM optimization.
The paper proposes a method to embed sequential Bayesian experimental design (BED) into large language models (LLMs) by training the models to reason about action selection using information-gain rewards. By specifying the experimental generative model separately from the LLM’s beliefs, the authors optimize expected information gain under a chosen model. Experiments on the Twenty Questions task show that the resulting policies outperform both inference- and training-time BED baselines while incurring lower computational costs, and the approach generalizes to unseen categories and transfers positively to the Medi-Q clinical dialogue benchmark.
arXiv:2607. 27023v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating large generative models across benchmarks is time-consuming and computationally expensive.
arXiv:2502. 08004v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a method to perform inference on a variety of complex scientific models with challenging inference (inverse) problems.
arXiv:2610.08969v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Black-box optimization problems are ubiquitous across science and engineering, often dealing with expensive objective functions. This objective latency...
arXiv:2608. 00316v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian optimization (BO) has become the standard tool for sample-efficient optimization and owes its efficiency to uncertainty-aware search driven by generic statistical priors.
arXiv:2609.36788v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Incorporating rich task-relevant context, such as domain knowledge and external observations, is a key capability yet remains challenging for Bayesian...
The paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) can perform principled Bayesian inference when updating beliefs in context. By creating an evaluation framework that includes qualitative epistemological tests, quantitative benchmarks, and analyses of downstream impacts, the authors find that LLMs typically violate Bayes' rule but that their performance improves dramatically when equipped with advanced reasoning and code‑execution tools, allowing them to approximate analytically intractable posteriors. The study suggests that appropriately tool‑augmented LLMs could already be leveraged to accelerate scientific discovery through complex belief updates.