arXiv:2601.17609v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: In domains like medicine and finance, large-scale labeled data is costly and often unavailable, leading to models trained on small datasets that st...
By Sara Rezaeimanesh, Kundan Thind, Farzan Siddiqui, Mohammad M. Ghassemi
arXiv:2609.15007v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Large language models are increasingly used as natural-language interfaces to structured data, yet they remain unreliable when answers require consis...
By Jackson Hassell, Chen Shen, Estevam Hruschka
arXiv:2607. 14141v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are powerful tools for decision-making under uncertainty.
By Kumar Rahul (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode, Kerala, India), Shovan Chowdhury (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode, Kerala, India)
arXiv:2606. 19264v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The knowledge encoded in large language models (LLMs) can serve as a substrate for structured reasoning over variables describing a complex world, but accessing this knowledge in a probabilistically coherent manner poses a difficult inference problem.
By Sanghyeok Choi, Henry Gouk, Esmeralda S. Whitammer
The paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) can perform principled Bayesian inference when updating beliefs in context. By creating an evaluation framework that includes qualitative epistemological tests, quantitative benchmarks, and analyses of downstream impacts, the authors find that LLMs typically violate Bayes' rule but that their performance improves dramatically when equipped with advanced reasoning and code‑execution tools, allowing them to approximate analytically intractable posteriors. The study suggests that appropriately tool‑augmented LLMs could already be leveraged to accelerate scientific discovery through complex belief updates.
By Linus Filbry, Luckeciano C. Melo, Yarin Gal
Semantic Bayesian World Models (SBWMs) propose a shift from static knowledge graphs to a dynamic, probabilistic fabric of beliefs that can be updated via Bayesian conditioning and influenced by actions. The approach aims to bridge the gap between crisp factual assertions and the probabilistic reasoning of foundation models and autonomous agents, enabling richer inference in scenarios such as home‑security decisions, actuarial estimates, and planning tasks. Realizing SBWMs requires new tools for belief annotation, probabilistic entailment, semantic calibration, and protocols for belief exchange among agents.
By Tommaso Soru