arXiv:2607. 00972v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Trustworthy deployment of Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems requires mechanisms for estimating when multi-stage reasoning pipelines may fail.
arXiv:2607. 25877v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper investigates how multi-agent systems (MAS)-based on large language models (LLMs) can support actuarial risk modelling, with a particular focus on uncertainty quantification.
arXiv:2606. 04435v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-step agentic retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines have demonstrated significant capability for complex reasoning tasks, yet remain vulnerable to a class of failure that existing hallucination detection mechanisms systematically miss: cascading hallucination, where errors introduced at early pipeline stages propagate and amplify across successive reasoning steps, producing confident but factually incorrect final outputs.
The paper introduces RUPA, a trajectory‑level uncertainty quantification framework for large language model agents. RUPA models an agent’s execution as a directed graph of reasoning states, tool interactions, and environment feedback, then propagates uncertainty across this graph to capture long‑range dependencies. Experiments on benchmarks such as τ‑2, Terminal‑Bench‑2, and GAIA show that RUPA outperforms existing methods, enabling earlier failure detection and more reliable agent execution.
arXiv:2603. 25450v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Detecting when a language model is wrong without ground truth labels is a fundamental challenge for safe deployment.
arXiv:2608. 14707v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems become increasingly capable, coordinating agents under uncertainty becomes a fundamental challenge.
The paper introduces Speculative Uncertainty (SU), a technique that infers a failure likelihood for black‑box LLM agents by evaluating their generated token sequences with a lightweight draft model, without needing internal model details. SU extracts phase‑aware features from reasoning and action spans, calibrates them against verifiable outcomes, and produces a failure‑likelihood score usable by downstream policies. Applying a pre‑execution veto gate based on SU to software‑engineering agents such as Qwen3‑Coder‑480B and Claude 3.5 Sonnet reduced execution error rates by 6‑8 percentage points and token costs by 14‑19 %, while maintaining performance on out‑of‑distribution benchmarks and across different agent models.
PropUQ-MAS is a framework for uncertainty quantification in large language model (LLM) multi‑agent systems that models the system as a communication‑structured graph. It estimates the reliability of each step by combining local uncertainty with uncertainty inherited from upstream messages, addressing the risk of error propagation in inter‑agent communication. Experiments show consistent improvements in UQ metrics, with average gains of +6.10% in AUROC and +47.58% in PRR.
arXiv:2606. 19353v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In-Context Learning (ICL) allows LLMs to adapt to new tasks from a few demonstrations, but its reliability remains a concern: predictions are highly sensitive to both prompt design and the model's ability to understand the context, obscuring whether failures arise from data properties or model limitations.
arXiv:2608. 03489v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Combining Bayesian learning and quantitative verification is a powerful toolset for analysing key quantitative properties of software systems, like reliability and response time.
arXiv:2602. 11619v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Running the same LLM agent on identical inputs yields 2.
arXiv:2606. 17203v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-agent AI systems are increasingly used to automate software engineering tasks including requirements analysis, architecture design, test generation, and traceability linking.
arXiv:2606. 19559v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent position papers argue that the classical aleatoric/epistemic uncertainty framework is insufficient for interactive large language model (LLM) agents and call for underspecification-aware, decomposed, and communicable uncertainty representations that can unlock new agent capabilities such as proactive clarification seeking and shared mental-model building.