The paper presents a hierarchical ensemble for short‑term photovoltaic power forecasting that fuses temporal neural models, historical analogs, state climatology, and gradient‑boosted trees with horizon‑specific convex weights. Solar geometry and numerical weather forecasts provide expected generation conditions, while a calibration step corrects recent bias using historical forecast errors. Evaluated on PVDAQ and GEFCom2014 data, the ensemble reduces mean absolute error by up to 6% compared to strong individual models, though its advantage varies with dataset and horizon.
By Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze, Yu Lei, Jiang Mingming
arXiv:2608. 04792v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate estimation of Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) from satellite imagery is essential for the large-scale monitoring of carbon stocks, yet it remains a challenging regression task at global scale.
By Ghjulia Sialellia, Linus Scheibenreif, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler
The study evaluates 13 Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) for estimating above‑ground biomass (AGB) from satellite imagery, comparing them to a fully supervised state‑of‑the‑art baseline trained on the AGBD dataset. Most GFMs perform worse than the baseline, but TESSERA and AlphaEarth Foundations (AEF) features combined with specific prediction heads achieve superior results, with the best model attaining an RMSE of 50.79 Mg/ha. This AEF‑based model also generalizes better to unseen regions, reduces RMSE by up to 25% in excluded areas, and matches the ESA CCI biomass product when trained on limited regional labels.
By Ghjulia Sialelli, Linus Scheibenreif, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler
The paper introduces Direct Rooftop Solar Prediction (DRSP), an end‑to‑end method that estimates rooftop solar potential directly from satellite images and regional sunlight data, bypassing explicit geometric reconstruction. DRSP does not predict roof orientation, slope, height, or DSMs, and therefore requires no geometric intermediate supervision. The authors built a large‑scale dataset from the Google Solar API, comprising about 60K rooftops in the U.S. Midwest and 87K in Texas, and evaluated how factors such as geographic training distribution, model depth, image resolution, and sunlight conditioning affect performance.
By Joshua Lee
arXiv:2607. 11470v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for integrating solar and wind generation into modern power systems, where operators must weigh risk rather than act on point forecasts alone.
By Shreedhar Gangwar (B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, India), Abhinav Bains (B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, India), Banalaxmi Brahma (B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, India)
SolarBench is an open global benchmark for image-based solar nowcasting that consolidates over six million sky and satellite images from 11 sites across a decade, paired with irradiance, PV output, and atmospheric data. The benchmark includes a toolbox for reproducible data access, processing, model development, and evaluation. Using SolarBench, the authors benchmark representative models, uncover a gap between average forecasting accuracy and the capture of rapid solar fluctuations, quantify predictability across cloud regimes, and demonstrate data‑efficient adaptation to new PV systems.
By Yuhao Nie, Stephen Campbell, Quentin Paletta, Liwenbo Zhang, Tao Jing, Samer Chaaraoui, Jonathan Giezendanner, Andea Scott, Tao Sun, Cong Feng, Max Aragon, Jacques Camier, Adam Jensen, Florian Kotthoff, Yuexing Yang, Yang Ming, Mengying Li, Stefanie Meilinger, Yupeng Wu, Adam Brandt, Sherrie Wang
arXiv:2608. 02088v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable photovoltaic (PV) forecasts are needed for low-carbon energy systems, but newly deployed sites often have short, imperfect records.
By Fariba Dehghan, Sebastian Stein, Vahid Yazdanpanah, Stephanie Gauthier, Masood Nazari
The paper presents a machine‑learning based climate classification tailored for photovoltaic (PV) modules, incorporating both energy yield and module lifetime with climate‑dependent degradation. Using an interpolated dataset of twelve input features, the authors identify annual global horizontal irradiation and ambient temperature as the most influential predictors, achieving RMSEs of 0.007 MWh for yield and 1.5 years for lifetime. The resulting hierarchical clustering yields six primary climate clusters (Tropical, Desert, Continental, Temperate, Boreal, Polar) and 15 subclusters, with the low‑temperature continental climate delivering the highest discounted lifetime energy yield.
By Youri Blom, Sofia Dutto, Alexandru Costache, Rowan Richie, Ruben Pelsser, Wesley Berger, Jing Sun, Rudi Santbergen, Olindo Isabella, Malte Ruben Vogt
The paper introduces IMPACT, a physics‑informed multimodal deep‑learning framework that forecasts photovoltaic power 10–110 minutes ahead with probabilistic outputs. It uses a four‑branch architecture to encode plant‑level temporal history, inverter‑level spatial cloud dynamics, known‑future solar geometry, and current meteorological data, fusing them via gated cross‑attention. The model outperforms 14 baselines, achieving a forecast skill score of 0.2950 and maintaining strong performance under overcast and variable sky conditions.
By Anushka Katiyar, Cong Feng, Jing Wang, Tristan Liu, Simon Julien, Zachary Jacobs
arXiv:2607. 14127v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Representative clutter height (RCH) is a key parameter in radio propagation and interference analysis because it captures the dominant height of local obstructions that drive terminal clutter loss.
By Shohini Sarkar, Smithi Mahendran, Rishi Chudasama, Varun Mannam, Arav Luthra, Yuvraj Rekhi, Vivek Nadig, Arsh Goenka
arXiv:2608. 11261v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Organic photovoltaic (OPV) materials are promising candidates for distributed solar energy in tropical regions, yet existing virtual screening tools report static power conversion efficiency (PCE) values at standard testing conditions (STC) that fail to capture the temperature-driven performance degradation experienced under real deployment conditions.
By Steve Cabrel Teguia Kouam, Rockefeller Rockefeller, Raoult Dabou Teukam, Jean-Pierre Tchapet Njafa, Patrick Sorrel Mvoto Kongo, Jean-Pierre Nguenang, Serge Guy Nana Engo
arXiv:2607. 07758v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Foundation models (FMs) have transformed machine learning from isolated task-specific model development toward general-purpose models pretrained on broad data and adapted to multiple downstream tasks.
By Syed Usama Imtiaz, Mitra Nasr Azadani, Nasrin Alamdari