The paper presents a hierarchical ensemble for short‑term photovoltaic power forecasting that fuses temporal neural models, historical analogs, state climatology, and gradient‑boosted trees with horizon‑specific convex weights. Solar geometry and numerical weather forecasts provide expected generation conditions, while a calibration step corrects recent bias using historical forecast errors. Evaluated on PVDAQ and GEFCom2014 data, the ensemble reduces mean absolute error by up to 6% compared to strong individual models, though its advantage varies with dataset and horizon.
By Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze, Yu Lei, Jiang Mingming
Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs. In photovoltaic (PV) forecasting, this requirement is especially challenging because numerical weather prediction (NWP) errors are temporally correlated, state dependent, and physically coupled across variables.
arXiv:2510. 15780v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to support renewable energy forecasting and grid operations.
By Alireza Moradi, Mathieu Tanneau, Reza Zandehshahvar, Pascal Van Hentenryck
arXiv:2607. 12954v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs.
By Dandan Chen, Yan Zhao, Xuepeng Chen
arXiv:2607. 08079v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for reliable grid dispatch and renewable energy integration, yet it remains challenging because PV generation is jointly shaped by weather variability, day-night transitions, regime-dependent dynamics, and strict physical constraints.
By Hang Fan, Weican Liu, Ying Lu, Dunnan Liu, Long Cheng, Wei Wei
arXiv:2606. 07457v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: At commissioning time, Photovoltaic (PV) operators must forecast production before target-site observations are available, limiting the direct use of standard supervised forecasters.
By Lorenzo Longarini, Alessandro Rongoni, Simone Silenzi, Emanuele Frontoni, Riccardo Rosati
arXiv:2609.15049v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: An ensemble can improve photovoltaic forecasts while adding components that contribute little or increase computation. We assess these effects throug...
By Sun Ze, Zhou Liguo, Xu Yuqing, Yu Lei, Jiang Mingming
PROSWIN is a probabilistic machine learning model that forecasts hourly solar wind speed at Earth up to four days ahead, using solar images and magnetograms processed by a deep neural network and distributional regression. It introduces a prediction score metric that rewards both timeline and high‑speed solar wind peak accuracy, achieving well‑calibrated uncertainties and superior performance on 14 years of data compared to existing models. The study highlights the importance of the 171 Å channel and demonstrates that probabilistic forecasts outperform single‑value models for both overall timelines and peak events.
By Daniel Collin, Yuri Shprits, Luca Chiarabini, Stefan J. Hofmeister, Nadja Klein, Guillermo Gallego
The paper introduces a transfer learning framework paired with Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) to enhance solar PV power forecasting in regions with limited historical data due to load shedding. Using a source-domain dataset from Alice Springs, Australia, the model is pretrained and then adapted to simulated Bangladesh PV data with varying data availability. Experiments show that transfer learning can reduce RMSE by up to 23.7% with only one month of target data, and the combined approach achieves 94.3% empirical coverage with prediction intervals 14% narrower than without transfer learning.
By Rakib Abdullah, K. M. Tahlil Mahfuz Faruk
arXiv:2609.36926v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Recent power measurements provide valuable information for photovoltaic(PV) power forecasting, but directly extrapolating short-term trends can intro...
By Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze, Yu Lei, Jiang Mingming
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
By Maria Luisa Taccari, Kenza Tazi, Ois\'in M. Morrison, Andreas Grafberger, Juan Colonese, Corentin Carton de Wiart, Christel Prudhomme, Cinzia Mazzetti, Matthew Chantry, Florian Pappenberger
The paper introduces CloudCast v2, a machine‑learning model that forecasts 12‑hour cloud‑cover from satellite‑derived initial conditions. Trained first on the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis to learn cloud‑evolution dynamics, it is then adapted to real satellite data using conditional flow matching, a generative technique that conditions noise on observed cloud fields and NWP inputs. CloudCast v2 achieves a 10 % reduction in mean absolute error compared to its predecessor and surpasses it in spatial skill after 3–6 hours, extending useful forecasting beyond the typical 1–3‑hour nowcasting window while preserving satellite‑level spatial detail.
By Mikko Partio, Leila Hieta, Ossi Laine