arXiv AI
Jun 4
Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Short-Term Flood Prediction
arXiv:2606. 04143v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities.
Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning for Wildfire Danger Forecasting
arXiv:2509. 25017v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Wildfires are among the most severe natural hazards, posing a significant threat to both humans and natural ecosystems.
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arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4
Probabilistic Deep Learning for Drought Forecasting: Role of Internal Climate Variability
arXiv:2608. 01864v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting drought risk is essential for anticipating impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and climate adaptation planning.
arXiv AI
Aug 6
Risk Is Not the Target: A Monotonic Framework for Evaluating Wildfire Operational Risk Signals
arXiv:2607. 21597v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Evaluating wildfire risk systems using standard machine-learning metrics such as F1-score or IoU is fundamentally flawed: these metrics assess event prediction accuracy, not the operational coherence of a continuous risk signal.
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 7
Evaluating Machine Learning Models for Post-Wildfire Debris-Flow Prediction
arXiv:2608. 05265v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction of post-wildfire debris flows is critical for mitigating hazards to communities, infrastructure, and resources during intense rainfall in recently burned areas.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 13
Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction
arXiv:2604. 16238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 24
Nipping the Butterfly Effect in the Bud: Self-Output Fine-Tuning for Autoregressive Weather Prediction
arXiv:2607. 21080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 29
Trustworthy Predictive Distributions for Tail Events with Semiparametric Diagnostic Transport Maps
arXiv:2603. 11229v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning forecast systems are moving beyond point predictions to full predictive distributions for future outcomes y conditional on complex inputs x.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 10
Evaluating the Generalizability of Foundation Models for Extreme Environmental Events: Case Study of California Wildfire PM2.5
arXiv:2607. 07951v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Wildfire smoke events produce extreme PM$_{2.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 20
DELUGE: Towards Continental-Scale Daily Pluvial Flood Damage Prediction via Interpretable Conditioning on Foundation Model Embeddings
arXiv:2607. 16050v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pluvial (rainfall-driven) flooding accounts for 45% of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims in the United States and is harder to predict than its riverine and coastal counterparts, with existing approaches limited to coarse resolution, regional domains, or computationally intensive process-based models unsuitable for daily continental-scale use.
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11
ReliableNet: A Chance-Constrained Approach to Trustworthy Classification in Deep Learning
arXiv:2608. 09768v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A prediction that is both confident and wrong is a critical reliability failure because it can bypass abstention and human review precisely when the model is mistaken.
arXiv AI
Jul 14
Uncertainty Quantification for EO Regression Tasks: Building Height, Tree Canopy Height and Above-ground Biomass Estimation
arXiv:2607. 11412v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Earth Observation regression tasks such as building height, canopy height, and above-ground biomass estimation underpin critical applications in urban planning, forest monitoring, and climate policy, where both accuracy and reliability are critical.
arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago
Evaluating AlphaEarth Foundations Embeddings for Wildfire Susceptibility Mapping
arXiv:2608. 12663v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Wildfire susceptibility mapping typically relies on physical variables assembled from multiple remote-sensing, climate, and geospatial products.