The paper investigates which historical examples are most useful for time‑series forecasting by defining predictive relevance as the expected future utility conditioned on inference‑time information. It introduces a two‑stage approach: a normalized‑pattern retriever generates a coarse candidate set, and a lightweight MLP reranks these candidates using future‑supervised relevance while keeping inference strictly past‑only. Experiments on six benchmarks show that this reranker improves pattern retrieval and outperforms a matched‑protocol baseline, revealing that historical relevance is structured, domain‑dependent, and not governed by a single universal retrieval rule.
arXiv:2606. 04135v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting relies on historical patterns, but real-world series often exhibit non-stationarity and regime shifts that challenge fully parametric forecasters.
arXiv:2603. 14709v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances zero-shot time series (TS) forecasting by leveraging external knowledge bases, yet existing approaches overlook input-level relevance when fusing retrieved samples with the query.
The paper introduces CASP-LLM, a coverage‑aware semantic prompting framework that mitigates bias toward dominant temporal patterns in prompt‑based time series forecasting. Unlike traditional similarity‑based retrieval that selects top‑K candidates by cosine similarity, CASP‑LLM uses usage‑tracking and a saturating‑gate regularizer to diversify prompt selection without adding learnable parameters. Experiments on six long‑term and the M4 short‑term benchmarks show that CASP‑LLM matches or outperforms similarity‑based LLM forecasters in most settings, with failures traced to cross‑batch usage rather than within‑retrieval redundancy.
arXiv:2607. 29459v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large-scale multivariate time series from heterogeneous IoT sensors demand accurate long-term forecasting for resource scheduling and predictive maintenance.
arXiv:2608. 06748v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic long-term time-series forecasting commonly relies on trained models.
arXiv:2608. 14054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting with pretrained foundation models has demonstrated strong zero-shot capabilities.
arXiv:2606. 17664v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Unsupervised dense retrievers offer scalability by learning semantic similarity from unlabeled documents via contrastive learning, but they struggle to capture the temporal relevance, retrieving semantically related but temporally misaligned documents-an important aspect when a document collection spans multiple time periods (e.
arXiv:2608. 05571v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval-augmented forecasting promises to adapt frozen Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) to new domains without fine-tuning, but recent methods typically rely on learned fusion modules, i.
arXiv:2606. 19412v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting leverages historical patterns to predict future values, but traditional methods face challenges when dealing with complex, non-stationary patterns that are difficult to memorize during training.
arXiv:2606. 14941v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting models often benefit from historical patterns.
Embedding-based retrieval ranks items by their similarity to a query in a shared vector space and usually aims to return the highest-scoring items. In many production settings this is not what is wanted: given a seed set that expresses a fine-grained pattern, one needs more items that both satisfy a target attribute and stay within that pattern.
arXiv:2609.23880v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal Information Retrieval (TIR) has been increasingly critical given the rise of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). Since temporally mismatched...