The paper investigates which historical examples are most useful for time‑series forecasting by defining predictive relevance as the expected future utility conditioned on inference‑time information. It introduces a two‑stage approach: a normalized‑pattern retriever generates a coarse candidate set, and a lightweight MLP reranks these candidates using future‑supervised relevance while keeping inference strictly past‑only. Experiments on six benchmarks show that this reranker improves pattern retrieval and outperforms a matched‑protocol baseline, revealing that historical relevance is structured, domain‑dependent, and not governed by a single universal retrieval rule.
arXiv:2606. 04135v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting relies on historical patterns, but real-world series often exhibit non-stationarity and regime shifts that challenge fully parametric forecasters.
arXiv:2603. 14709v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances zero-shot time series (TS) forecasting by leveraging external knowledge bases, yet existing approaches overlook input-level relevance when fusing retrieved samples with the query.
The paper introduces CASP-LLM, a coverage‑aware semantic prompting framework that mitigates bias toward dominant temporal patterns in prompt‑based time series forecasting. Unlike traditional similarity‑based retrieval that selects top‑K candidates by cosine similarity, CASP‑LLM uses usage‑tracking and a saturating‑gate regularizer to diversify prompt selection without adding learnable parameters. Experiments on six long‑term and the M4 short‑term benchmarks show that CASP‑LLM matches or outperforms similarity‑based LLM forecasters in most settings, with failures traced to cross‑batch usage rather than within‑retrieval redundancy.
arXiv:2607. 29459v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large-scale multivariate time series from heterogeneous IoT sensors demand accurate long-term forecasting for resource scheduling and predictive maintenance.
arXiv:2608. 06748v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic long-term time-series forecasting commonly relies on trained models.
arXiv:2610.07834v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval-augmented time-series forecasting uses the continuations of historical segments similar to the current context as references for a forecaster...
arXiv:2608. 14054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting with pretrained foundation models has demonstrated strong zero-shot capabilities.
SteerCast is a retrieval‑based latent steering technique that enhances decoder‑only time‑series forecasters during inference without updating model parameters. It builds a database from the training set, storing each history window’s representation and a steering vector that captures the difference between the model’s prediction and the ground‑truth continuation in latent space. During testing, SteerCast retrieves nearest neighbors, aggregates their steering vectors, and injects the resulting signal into the forecaster’s hidden states at each autoregressive step, guiding predictions toward trajectories seen in similar training cases. Experiments on diverse multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons demonstrate consistent accuracy improvements over fine‑tuned backbones and other retrieval‑based baselines, all while requiring no additional training beyond the original fine‑tuning and using only the training set as a retrieval corpus.
READ‑Bench is a new benchmark for historical‑case retrieval in time‑series diagnosis, covering 12 multivariate datasets and defining relevance by shared fault or event type rather than signal shape. The study evaluates a wide range of retrieval methods—including classical distances, symbolic retrievers, self‑supervised and foundation‑model embeddings, and label‑aware or language‑model rerankers—under a unified protocol that varies supervision, pollution, and corpus size. Results show that pretrained embeddings do not outperform strong classical baselines for search alone, but a small amount of resolved‑case supervision via a Gaussian‑process reranker significantly boosts performance, especially when combined with a reciprocal‑rank fusion of a normal‑residual embedder and dynamic time warping. whyItMatters":"The benchmark demonstrates that modest supervised reranking can outperform sophisticated representations, guiding future research toward efficient, data‑light retrieval strategies for time‑series diagnosis."
arXiv:2606. 17664v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Unsupervised dense retrievers offer scalability by learning semantic similarity from unlabeled documents via contrastive learning, but they struggle to capture the temporal relevance, retrieving semantically related but temporally misaligned documents-an important aspect when a document collection spans multiple time periods (e.
arXiv:2608. 05571v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval-augmented forecasting promises to adapt frozen Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) to new domains without fine-tuning, but recent methods typically rely on learned fusion modules, i.
arXiv:2606. 19412v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting leverages historical patterns to predict future values, but traditional methods face challenges when dealing with complex, non-stationary patterns that are difficult to memorize during training.