arXiv Machine Learning

Stationarity-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 04135v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting relies on historical patterns, but real-world series often exhibit non-stationarity and regime shifts that challenge fully parametric forecasters.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Spectral Retrieval-Augmented Time-Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 19412v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting leverages historical patterns to predict future values, but traditional methods face challenges when dealing with complex, non-stationary patterns that are difficult to memorize during training.

By Huu Hiep Nguyen, Minh Hoang Nguyen, Dung Nguyen, Hung Le
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 6

TS-RAG: Retrieval Augmented Generation for Time Series Forecasting

While deep learning models, particularly transformer-based architectures, have shown impressive performance in time series forecasting, the application of retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) in this domain remains limited. Since RAG has proven effective in enhancing the capabilities of large language models by incorporating relevant external information, retrieving similar time series sequences as references might also improve accuracy in time series forecasting tasks.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 17

Which Histories Matter for Time Series Forecasting? Learning Predictive Relevance with Future Supervision

The paper investigates which historical examples are most useful for time‑series forecasting by defining predictive relevance as the expected future utility conditioned on inference‑time information. It introduces a two‑stage approach: a normalized‑pattern retriever generates a coarse candidate set, and a lightweight MLP reranks these candidates using future‑supervised relevance while keeping inference strictly past‑only. Experiments on six benchmarks show that this reranker improves pattern retrieval and outperforms a matched‑protocol baseline, revealing that historical relevance is structured, domain‑dependent, and not governed by a single universal retrieval rule.

By Yong-Hoon Choi, Kwang-Hyun Park, Youngjin Cho
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 16

Not All Retrievals are Useful: Cross-Attention for Input-Aware RAG in Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2603. 14709v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances zero-shot time series (TS) forecasting by leveraging external knowledge bases, yet existing approaches overlook input-level relevance when fusing retrieved samples with the query.

By Seunghan Lee, Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo, Sungdong Yoo, Minjae Kim, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, SoonYoung Lee, Wonbin Ahn
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Beyond Similarity: Coverage-Aware Prompt Selection for Time Series Forecasting with LLMs

The paper introduces CASP-LLM, a coverage‑aware semantic prompting framework that mitigates bias toward dominant temporal patterns in prompt‑based time series forecasting. Unlike traditional similarity‑based retrieval that selects top‑K candidates by cosine similarity, CASP‑LLM uses usage‑tracking and a saturating‑gate regularizer to diversify prompt selection without adding learnable parameters. Experiments on six long‑term and the M4 short‑term benchmarks show that CASP‑LLM matches or outperforms similarity‑based LLM forecasters in most settings, with failures traced to cross‑batch usage rather than within‑retrieval redundancy.

By Daeun Ji, Minkyoung Kim, Dongkuk Kim, Yohan Lee, Beomsoo Kim, Beakcheol Jang
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 19

Continuous Evolution Pool: Taming Recurring Concept Drift in Online Time Series Forecasting

The paper introduces the Continuous Evolution Pool (CEP), a replay‑free framework for online time series forecasting that tackles recurring concept drift. CEP maintains a dynamic pool of specialized forecasters, using lightweight statistical genes to identify concepts, spawn new models when distribution shifts occur, and prune obsolete ones under memory limits. Experiments on real‑world datasets show CEP reduces forecasting error by up to 24% compared to state‑of‑the‑art baselines, especially in scenarios with pronounced recurring drift.

By Tianxiang Zhan, Ming Jin, Yuanpeng He, Yuxuan Liang, Shirui Pan