arXiv Machine Learning By Daeun Ji, Minkyoung Kim, Dongkuk Kim, Yohan Lee, Beomsoo Kim, Beakcheol Jang

Beyond Similarity: Coverage-Aware Prompt Selection for Time Series Forecasting with LLMs

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The paper introduces CASP-LLM, a coverage‑aware semantic prompting framework that mitigates bias toward dominant temporal patterns in prompt‑based time series forecasting. Unlike traditional similarity‑based retrieval that selects top‑K candidates by cosine similarity, CASP‑LLM uses usage‑tracking and a saturating‑gate regularizer to diversify prompt selection without adding learnable parameters. Experiments on six long‑term and the M4 short‑term benchmarks show that CASP‑LLM matches or outperforms similarity‑based LLM forecasters in most settings, with failures traced to cross‑batch usage rather than within‑retrieval redundancy.

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