The paper introduces a new approach to source distribution estimation (SDE) in simulation-based science, addressing limitations of existing methods that rely on a fixed surrogate likelihood. By employing an expectation‑maximization framework, the authors iteratively train an amortized posterior on fresh simulations (E‑step) and refit the source distribution to the posterior’s average (M‑step). Two parameterizations are explored: separate source and posterior flows, and a single shared conditional flow, with experiments on three benchmark tasks showing improved performance over fixed surrogate and iterated baseline methods, notably achieving higher data‑space C2ST scores on the Lotka–Volterra benchmark.
arXiv:2509. 23385v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data.
Conditional Mean Flows introduce a new approach for simulation-based inference that replaces the costly numerical integration of traditional flow matching with few-step sampling and tractable density evaluation. By identifying conditional flow maps through a mean flow objective and using independent masking, the method allows direct estimation of marginal likelihoods. Experiments demonstrate that single-step conditional mean flow density evaluation achieves error comparable to 200-step flow matching while accelerating downstream MCMC sampling by roughly 200‑fold.
arXiv:2610.01034v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian inference increasingly uses informative but implicit priors represented only by samples, such as historical ensembles, simulator outputs, an...
arXiv:2608.21729v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) serves as a vital framework for parameter inference in scientific fields where simulators involve intractable likeliho...
arXiv:2504. 01894v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution.
arXiv:2606. 23920v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The task of compositional generation involves using a conditional generative model, trained only on a subset of the possible conditions, to produce samples from compositionally-defined target distributions such as a geometric combination of the source distributions.
Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian inference for GLMMs yields calibrated uncertainty...
arXiv:2607. 21721v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Learned generative priors are increasingly used for ill-posed Bayesian inverse problems, their posterior uncertainty treated as earned from data.
arXiv:2607. 05252v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is critical for scientific discovery, with generative models offering a promising path toward efficient inference.
arXiv:2610.08021v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) has become a powerful approach to Bayesian inference in complex scientific models whose likelihoods are difficult or i...
arXiv:2607. 03809v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Normalising flows provide a powerful variational family for approximate inference, yet individual architectures often fail to generalise across heterogeneous posterior geometries.
arXiv:2606. 15871v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian inference for inverse problems is run to evaluate integrals -- posterior expectations, tail probabilities, and risks -- across a stream of observations.