The paper introduces a new approach to source distribution estimation (SDE) in simulation-based science, addressing limitations of existing methods that rely on a fixed surrogate likelihood. By employing an expectation‑maximization framework, the authors iteratively train an amortized posterior on fresh simulations (E‑step) and refit the source distribution to the posterior’s average (M‑step). Two parameterizations are explored: separate source and posterior flows, and a single shared conditional flow, with experiments on three benchmark tasks showing improved performance over fixed surrogate and iterated baseline methods, notably achieving higher data‑space C2ST scores on the Lotka–Volterra benchmark.
By Trung-Dung Hoang, Lisa M. Koch
arXiv:2606. 16923v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) of latent parameters is often hindered by simulator misspecification, the mismatch between simulated and real-world observations caused by inherent modeling simplifications.
By Arunkumar V, Manoranjan Gandhudi, Gangadharan G. R., Arun Prakash, S. Senthilkumar
arXiv:2508. 17077v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Current experimental scientists have been increasingly relying on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex non-linear models with intractable likelihoods.
By Luben M. C. Cabezas, Vagner S. Santos, Thiago R. Ramos, Pedro L. C. Rodrigues, Rafael Izbicki
Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian inference for GLMMs yields calibrated uncertainty...
arXiv:2609.24422v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian...
By Alex Kipnis, Marcel Binz, Eric Schulz
arXiv:2504. 01894v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution.
By Caroline Tatsuoka, Minglei Yang, Dongbin Xiu, Guannan Zhang
arXiv:2607. 05252v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is critical for scientific discovery, with generative models offering a promising path toward efficient inference.
By Weichen Qin, Yufan Xie, Peihao Wang, Chia-Jui Chou, Minghui Du, Peng Xu, Ziren Luo, Yi Yang, Jingyi Yu, Bo Liang, Jiakai Zhang
The paper demonstrates that a self‑supervised Vision Transformer (ViT) pretrained on a fast, low‑cost semi‑numerical simulator can produce data summaries that transfer across different simulators without retraining. In 21cm cosmology, the ViT—named SKATR—pretrained on 67,000 21cmFAST lightcones is applied unchanged to hydrodynamical Loreli II lightcones, enabling accurate inference of five astrophysical parameters with fewer radiative‑transfer simulations than a fully‑supervised baseline. SKATR remains accurate, informative, and calibrated even under realistic SKA antenna array noise, outperforming supervised models retrained on noisy data.
By Yannic Pietschke, Caroline Heneka, Ayodele Ore, Romain Meriot
PosteriorBench is a new benchmark that evaluates how well generative inverse solvers recover full posterior distributions rather than just a single reconstruction. It tests four physics-based inverse problems—Darcy flow inversion, Poisson source recovery, carbon capture and storage, and light transport material inference—using high-fidelity reference posteriors generated by rejection sampling and MCMC. The benchmark employs five metrics (posterior-mean error, posterior-standard-deviation error, maximum mean discrepancy, sliced Wasserstein distance, and radially averaged power-spectrum error) to assess pointwise accuracy, uncertainty, distributional alignment, and global frequency fidelity, revealing significant distribution-matching gaps in current solvers and highlighting the importance of neural operators, guidance weights, and generation noise for posterior-variance calibration.
By Jiachen Yao, Zi-Siang Hsu, Xi Deng, Aditi Gupta, Xin Ju, Sally M Benson, Gege Wen, Anima Anandkumar
The paper introduces Flow Divergence Sampler (FDS), a training‑free method that refines intermediate states in flow‑matching models by using the divergence of the marginal velocity field to detect and correct misguidance toward low‑density regions. FDS operates during inference, requires no additional training, and can be applied as a plug‑and‑play module with standard solvers and existing flow backbones. Experiments show that FDS consistently improves fidelity in tasks such as text‑to‑image synthesis and inverse problems.
By Yeonwoo Cha, Jaehoon Yoo, Semin Kim, Yunseo Park, Jinhyeon Kwon, Seunghoon Hong
arXiv:2610.01193v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual...
By Yunrui Guan, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian, Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan
arXiv:2605. 00941v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Flow matching has become a leading framework for generative modeling, but quantifying the uncertainty of its samples remains an open problem.
By Jiarui Xing, Song Wang, Jian Wang