arXiv:2610.08021v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) has become a powerful approach to Bayesian inference in complex scientific models whose likelihoods are difficult or i...
arXiv:2606. 10023v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate posterior estimation is central to scientific inference, as uncertainties determine what can be reliably learned from observational data.
The paper introduces a scalable Bayesian method for conditional density estimation using a logistic Gaussian process. It models the log conditional density with a separable covariance— a Matérn kernel on the response dimension and a Nyström-feature kernel on covariates— and samples the latent field via kinetic Langevin dynamics instead of traditional approximations. Experiments on photometric‑redshift data with up to 3.9 million observations show the approach matches state‑of‑the‑art tabular foundation models on density and calibration metrics.
Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian inference for GLMMs yields calibrated uncertainty...
arXiv:2606. 20538v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization.
The paper introduces a structured posterior‑correction framework that blends a tractable Gaussian reference with data‑driven corrections learned via diffusion models. After applying mean correction and covariance calibration, the diffusion model focuses on a low‑dimensional subspace that captures discrepancies from the Gaussian reference, while the remaining space stays Gaussian. Experiments on three scientific inference tasks show that these corrections recover hidden modes, improve sample structure, and reduce prediction error compared to the Gaussian reference, with trade‑offs between accuracy and computational cost relative to full‑field generative models.
The paper introduces a new approach to source distribution estimation (SDE) in simulation-based science, addressing limitations of existing methods that rely on a fixed surrogate likelihood. By employing an expectation‑maximization framework, the authors iteratively train an amortized posterior on fresh simulations (E‑step) and refit the source distribution to the posterior’s average (M‑step). Two parameterizations are explored: separate source and posterior flows, and a single shared conditional flow, with experiments on three benchmark tasks showing improved performance over fixed surrogate and iterated baseline methods, notably achieving higher data‑space C2ST scores on the Lotka–Volterra benchmark.
arXiv:2504. 01894v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution.
arXiv:2609.24422v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian...
arXiv:2502. 04646v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Weighted sampling -- sampling from a probability density function (PDF) proportional to the product of a base PDF and a weight function -- is a fundamental technique with wide-ranging applications in variance reduction, biased sampling, data augmentation, and more.
arXiv:2606. 25882v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: DGPs are probabilistic models with remarkable prediction performance that concatenate GPs across several layers.
arXiv:2608. 13774v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) requires only the ability to evaluate the likelihood, making it a common technique for inference in complex models.