arXiv Machine Learning

Prior laundering: learned priors with inherited, undetectable overconfidence

arXiv:2607. 21721v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Learned generative priors are increasingly used for ill-posed Bayesian inverse problems, their posterior uncertainty treated as earned from data.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 2

Measurement Geometry and Design for Trustworthy Generative Inverse Problems

arXiv:2606. 02309v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generative models are increasingly used as priors for inverse problems, but their ability to produce realistic images creates a basic trust problem: a plausible reconstruction may be supported by the measurements, or it may be filled in by the prior along unobserved directions.

By Pengfei Jin, Na Li, Quanzheng Li
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 3

Source Distribution Estimation by Posterior Averaging

The paper introduces a new approach to source distribution estimation (SDE) in simulation-based science, addressing limitations of existing methods that rely on a fixed surrogate likelihood. By employing an expectation‑maximization framework, the authors iteratively train an amortized posterior on fresh simulations (E‑step) and refit the source distribution to the posterior’s average (M‑step). Two parameterizations are explored: separate source and posterior flows, and a single shared conditional flow, with experiments on three benchmark tasks showing improved performance over fixed surrogate and iterated baseline methods, notably achieving higher data‑space C2ST scores on the Lotka–Volterra benchmark.

By Trung-Dung Hoang, Lisa M. Koch
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

Continually learning neural-operator surrogate for three-dimensional airborne electromagnetic Bayesian inversion

The paper presents a continually learning neural‑operator surrogate for the three‑dimensional forward operator used in time‑domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) Bayesian inversion. By training on successive geological priors and employing an ensemble‑disagreement validity check, the surrogate replaces the expensive forward solver, enabling the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to reproduce the full‑solver posterior with credible intervals within 2.6 % of the truth. Applied to the 2013 Capricorn TEMPEST survey, the surrogate inverts over two million soundings in seconds, making uncertainty‑quantified conductivity imaging at survey scale feasible for near real‑time mineral‑systems targeting.

By Jaehong Chung, Andrew Lockwood, Jef Caers
arXiv Computer Vision
Sep 11

A Calibration Audit of Confidence in Feed-Forward 3D Reconstruction Models

The paper audits the confidence outputs of seven feed‑forward 3D reconstruction backbones across 13 datasets, evaluating four properties: error ranking, average error‑to‑uncertainty ratio, slope of this ratio, and coverage of the implied error distribution. While confidence ranks errors well, the decoded uncertainty is consistently too small—off by at least 2.4× on median cases—and worsens with higher confidence. A post‑hoc power‑law fit per backbone‑dataset pair improves all four metrics at the dataset level, reducing the median error by 1.35×, but fails to correct coverage for many held‑out scenes, indicating the models lack the correct error scale and distribution shape.

By Nanxing Nick Deng, Qing Cheng, Niclas Zeller, Daniel Cremers
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 14

Physical-State-Guided Diffusion Sampling for Full-Waveform Inversion

Physical-State-Guided Diffusion Sampling (PSG) couples a persistent physical velocity model to a diffusion prior via a Gaussian bridge, allowing the physical state to be refined by waveform fitting while guiding the reverse diffusion process. This approach separates wave‑equation and denoiser gradients, preserving conventional FWI initialization and optimization history. PSG outperforms classical and diffusion‑based baselines on four OpenFWI families, maintains strong structural recovery under noise, and supports large‑scale models like Marmousi, Overthrust, and BP2004 Salt without retraining.

By Chen Min, Haowen Jiang, Zheng Ma, Xiongbin Yan