arXiv:2504. 01894v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution.
arXiv:2606. 10023v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate posterior estimation is central to scientific inference, as uncertainties determine what can be reliably learned from observational data.
arXiv:2609.36950v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-based inference is challenging when many heterogeneous observations must be composed, hierarchical latent structure must be preserved, and t...
arXiv:2601. 21026v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Sampling configurations at thermodynamic equilibrium is a central challenge in statistical physics.
The paper introduces a two-step Metropolis–Hastings algorithm designed to efficiently sample from Bayesian empirical likelihood (BayesEL) posterior distributions, addressing challenges posed by the complex, often non‑convex support of empirical likelihood. The method leverages current parameter values and estimating equations to propose new values for remaining parameters, making it suitable for problems with discontinuous estimating equations such as simultaneous quantile regression. Additionally, the approach extends naturally to BayesEL model selection via reversible‑jump MCMC, and the authors demonstrate its utility through several real‑life applications.
PosteriorBench is a new benchmark that evaluates how well generative inverse solvers recover full posterior distributions rather than just a single reconstruction. It tests four physics-based inverse problems—Darcy flow inversion, Poisson source recovery, carbon capture and storage, and light transport material inference—using high-fidelity reference posteriors generated by rejection sampling and MCMC. The benchmark employs five metrics (posterior-mean error, posterior-standard-deviation error, maximum mean discrepancy, sliced Wasserstein distance, and radially averaged power-spectrum error) to assess pointwise accuracy, uncertainty, distributional alignment, and global frequency fidelity, revealing significant distribution-matching gaps in current solvers and highlighting the importance of neural operators, guidance weights, and generation noise for posterior-variance calibration.
arXiv:2608. 07648v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sampling high-dimensional probability distributions is a central task in scientific computing, with applications ranging from Bayesian inference to statistical physics and molecular simulation.
arXiv:2509. 23385v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data.
arXiv:2407. 20432v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Bayesian inference methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) typically require repeated computations of the likelihood function, but in some scenarios this is infeasible and alternative methods are needed.
arXiv:2608. 13774v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) requires only the ability to evaluate the likelihood, making it a common technique for inference in complex models.
Simulation-based inference is challenging when many heterogeneous observations must be composed, hierarchical latent structure must be preserved, and the simulator is misspecified relative to observed...
arXiv:2605. 15407v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider amortized Bayesian inference for nonlinear inverse problems using only samples from the joint distribution of parameters and observations, including problems with unknown functions in a Banach space.
The paper introduces a new approach to source distribution estimation (SDE) in simulation-based science, addressing limitations of existing methods that rely on a fixed surrogate likelihood. By employing an expectation‑maximization framework, the authors iteratively train an amortized posterior on fresh simulations (E‑step) and refit the source distribution to the posterior’s average (M‑step). Two parameterizations are explored: separate source and posterior flows, and a single shared conditional flow, with experiments on three benchmark tasks showing improved performance over fixed surrogate and iterated baseline methods, notably achieving higher data‑space C2ST scores on the Lotka–Volterra benchmark.