arXiv Machine Learning

Negation-Aware Weighted Information Fusion for Reliable Evidential Reasoning

arXiv AI
Aug 14

Robust Dempster-Shafer Evidence Fusion with Chaos-Conflict Measurement and Historical-Experience Weighting

arXiv:2608. 13108v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-source evidence fusion under Dempster-Shafer theory faces two persistent challenges: existing conflict measures assess inter-evidence inconsistency and intra-evidence uncertainty independently, yielding incomplete evaluations, and current fusion methods evaluate evidence sources exclusively through instantaneous comparisns without exploiting their long-term reliability across diverse decision contexts.

By Huiyu Li, Weibo Liu, Xinru Xu, Dongchen Gao, Meng Zhang, Junhua Hu
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 14

Are Independently Estimated View Uncertainties Comparable? Unified Routing for Trusted Multi-View Classification

The paper introduces Trusted Multi-view learning with Unified Routing (TMUR), a method that separates view-specific evidence extraction from fusion arbitration in multi-view classification. TMUR employs view-private experts, a collaborative expert, and a unified router that assigns sample-level weights based on global context, along with soft load-balancing and diversity regularization to promote balanced and discriminative expert use. Experiments on 14 datasets show that TMUR consistently improves classification accuracy and reliability compared to 15 recent baselines.

By Yilin Zhang, Cai Xu, Haishun Chen, Ziyu Guan, Wei Zhao
arXiv AI
4d ago

Diagnosing and Improving Probabilistic Reasoning in Large Language Models

The paper introduces a decision‑theoretic framework that splits a large language model’s decision loss into belief formation and action selection components. Using a synthetic benchmark, it evaluates how reinforcement‑learning interventions on beliefs, decisions, or both affect these components across three domains. The study finds that targeting a single component improves that part but may not transfer to others, while jointly targeting both improves both only when training and evaluation formats match.

By Huaman Sun, Dingcheng Wang, Jason Hartline, Jessica Hullman
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 24

Reliable Fusion of Conflicting Experts

The paper introduces a probabilistic‑circuit framework for fusing opinions from multiple black‑box experts in noisy, conflict‑prone environments. It dynamically assigns context‑specific credibility to each expert, allowing reliable aggregation without needing access to their internal models or retraining. Experiments on multiple‑choice question answering with large language models show that this method outperforms individual models and static ensemble baselines, consistently improving predictive accuracy and decision reliability under disagreement.

By Pranuthi Tenali, Sahil Sidheekh, Saurabh Mathur, Vijayalakshmi Saravanan, Erik Blasch, Kristian Kersting, Sriraam Natarajan