Diagnosing and Improving Probabilistic Reasoning in Large Language Models
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The paper introduces a decision‑theoretic framework that splits a large language model’s decision loss into belief formation and action selection components. Using a synthetic benchmark, it evaluates how reinforcement‑learning interventions on beliefs, decisions, or both affect these components across three domains. The study finds that targeting a single component improves that part but may not transfer to others, while jointly targeting both improves both only when training and evaluation formats match.
arXiv:2606. 09856v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Post-training Large Language Models (LLMs) for reasoning typically focuses on deductive tasks such as mathematics and coding where correctness is verifiable.
The paper introduces Fact-Ablated Evaluation (FAE), a framework that iteratively removes cited evidence to test whether large language models (LLMs) adjust their fact‑checking predictions accordingly. Experiments reveal that many off‑the‑shelf LLMs rely more on internal knowledge than on the provided evidence. To address this, the authors propose REAL, a training method that uses counterfactual evidence supervision to encourage LLMs to base veracity judgments on evidence, achieving better evidence‑dependent performance across four datasets.
arXiv:2606. 07515v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We investigate the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of large language models through a controlled benchmarking study on discrete probability problems.
arXiv:2604. 22565v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) can reason well, yet often miss decisive evidence when it is buried in long, noisy contexts.
arXiv:2604.08454v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where confident yet incorrect inferences may cause severe real-world harm,...