arXiv AI By Huaman Sun, Dingcheng Wang, Jason Hartline, Jessica Hullman

Diagnosing and Improving Probabilistic Reasoning in Large Language Models

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The paper introduces a decision‑theoretic framework that splits a large language model’s decision loss into belief formation and action selection components. Using a synthetic benchmark, it evaluates how reinforcement‑learning interventions on beliefs, decisions, or both affect these components across three domains. The study finds that targeting a single component improves that part but may not transfer to others, while jointly targeting both improves both only when training and evaluation formats match.

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