arXiv Machine Learning

A Two-Stage Time-Aware Transformer for Short-Horizon AECOPD Risk Prediction

arXiv:2608. 19578v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) can worsen rapidly, making timely prediction a clinical priority.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 24

Time-Aware Tranformer-Based Prediction Model for AECOPD

The paper presents a Time-Aware transformer-based model designed to predict Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (AECOPD) using only respiratory data from daily-use ventilators. By capturing symptom patterns and their temporal progression, the model generates meaningful patient representations and outperforms traditional methods across multiple classification tasks. This approach aims to provide timely detection of AECOPD while minimizing latency associated with clinical and laboratory data.

By Weihao Qu, Ling Zheng, Dongyang Wang, Jiacun Wang, Haowen Pan
arXiv AI
Sep 1

INTERVenE: Temporal-Abstraction-Interval Based Transformers for Short-Horizon Medical Event Prediction

INTERVenE introduces Transformer models that use a knowledge‑based temporal abstraction (KBTA) token stream of named clinical concepts instead of raw measurements, enabling per‑token attributions to resolve directly to clinical concepts. Two variants are offered: an auto‑regressive decoder that generates future abstraction trajectories with step‑wise risk readouts, and a bidirectional encoder that jointly predicts risk and time‑to‑event in a single pass. On 57,078 MIMIC‑IV admissions, the encoder variant outperforms neural baselines with a support‑weighted AUPRC of 0.672 and AUROC of 0.901, while the decoder provides complementary token‑level risk trajectories.

By Shahar Oded, Yuval Shahar
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 8

One Loss to Rule Them All: Marked Time-to-Event for Structured EHR Foundation Models

arXiv:2602. 00541v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Clinical events captured in Electronic Health Records (EHR) are irregularly sampled and may consist of a mixture of discrete events and numerical measurements, such as laboratory values or treatment dosages.

By Zilin Jing, Vincent Jeanselme, Yuta Kobayashi, Simon A. Lee, Chao Pang, Aparajita Kashyap, Yanwei Li, Xinzhuo Jiang, Shalmali Joshi
arXiv AI
Jun 4

HEPA: A Self-Supervised Horizon-Conditioned Event Predictive Architecture for Time Series

arXiv:2605. 11130v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Critical events in multivariate time series, from turbine failures to cardiac arrhythmias, demand accurate prediction, yet labeled data is scarce because such events are rare and costly to annotate.

By Jonas Petersen, Gian-Alessandro Lombardi, Riccardo Maggioni, Camilla Mazzoleni, Federico Martelli, Philipp Petersen
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 19

Mr.Dec: Daily-Scale Longitudinal Multimodal Modeling for 30-Day Readmission Prediction

Mr.Dec is a new Transformer‑decoder model that predicts 30‑day hospital readmission by treating each admission as a chronological sequence of daily multimodal events, integrating Electronic Health Record updates and Chest X‑ray findings. It uses disease‑specific supervised contrastive learning to shape a diagnosis‑aware latent space and preserves day‑level clinical signals that other methods often compress. Experiments on MIMIC‑IV and MIMIC‑CXR datasets show state‑of‑the‑art performance and the model can highlight "Critical Days" for actionable real‑time risk stratification.

By Minjun Kim, Jong Hak Moon
arXiv AI
3d ago

PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN: Prior-Guided Joint Probabilistic Forecasting of Clinical Trajectories

PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN is a trajectory-first framework for joint probabilistic forecasting of multivariate physiological data, combining missingness-aware temporal encoders, a soft organ-system prior, patient-specific relations, nonlinear Kolmogorov‑Arnold messages, and a low‑rank multivariate Student‑t head. Evaluated on a MIMIC‑IV cohort of 6,882 patients, it achieves the second‑lowest normalized MAE and the lowest RMSE among 13 models, while providing calibrated probabilistic forecasts with empirical coverage at 50%, 80%, and 95% intervals. Ablation studies show that relational structure is critical for performance, and increasing covariance rank improves likelihood but not point accuracy. whyItMatters":"The model demonstrates that joint trajectory forecasting can yield highly accurate, calibrated predictions of physiological trajectories, offering a potentially inspectable intermediate task for clinical deterioration prediction."

By Weizhi Nie, Rihao Chang, Weijie Wang, Yuting Su
arXiv AI
Aug 7

Trajectory-guided discharge stratification for heart failure using short-context electronic health record sequence modeling

arXiv:2511. 16839v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Purpose: Heart failure (HF) discharge planning depends on identifying patients at risk of deterioration or death, yet accurate prediction from routinely collected electronic health records (EHRs) remains challenging.

By Falk Dippel, Yinan Yu, Annika Rosengren, Martin Lindgren, Christina E. Lundberg, Erik Aerts, Martin Adiels, Helen Sj\"oland
arXiv AI
Sep 1

Scalable Clinical Data Infrastructure and Comparative ML Evaluation for Hospitalisation Risk Prediction in Elderly Patients with Multiple Long-Term Conditions using CPRD

arXiv:2608.29419v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning architectures are increasingly proposed for patient trajectory modeling in electronic health records (EHRs), yet their advantage over s...

By Asra Aslam, Volodymyr Chapman, Maurice M. O'Connell, Aseel S. Abuzour, Michael Abaho, Danushka Bollegala, Gary Leeming, Eduard Shantsila, Andrew Clegg, Lauren E. Walker, Iain Edward Buchan, Samuel D. Relton
arXiv Statistics ML
Aug 25

Random Hazard Forests

Random Hazard Forests (RHF) is a survival tree ensemble that models how a patient's hazard changes over continuous time as new measurements arrive. RHF directly estimates a nonparametric hazard likelihood for predictable covariate processes, using an efficient working model to guide tree construction and then estimating flexible time‑varying hazards at each terminal node. By routing each tree based on the covariate state immediately before each time point, RHF can handle irregular and asynchronous covariate updates, and averaging across trees yields a pathwise hazard estimate that accurately captures changing risk in simulations and an intensive‑care application.

By Hemant Ishwaran, Eileen M. Hsich, Udaya B. Kogalur, Donald K. K. Lee