PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN is a trajectory-first framework for joint probabilistic forecasting of multivariate physiological data, combining missingness-aware temporal encoders, a soft organ-system prior, patient-specific relations, nonlinear Kolmogorov‑Arnold messages, and a low‑rank multivariate Student‑t head. Evaluated on a MIMIC‑IV cohort of 6,882 patients, it achieves the second‑lowest normalized MAE and the lowest RMSE among 13 models, while providing calibrated probabilistic forecasts with empirical coverage at 50%, 80%, and 95% intervals. Ablation studies show that relational structure is critical for performance, and increasing covariance rank improves likelihood but not point accuracy.
whyItMatters":"The model demonstrates that joint trajectory forecasting can yield highly accurate, calibrated predictions of physiological trajectories, offering a potentially inspectable intermediate task for clinical deterioration prediction."
By Weizhi Nie, Rihao Chang, Weijie Wang, Yuting Su
The paper introduces CALIBRA, a calibration-first multimodal temporal learning framework designed for transferable asthma‑risk forecasting across varying patient cohorts and sensor ecosystems. It processes multiple data streams—environmental, pulmonary, symptom, medication, wearable, and context—using dedicated recurrent encoders, a reliability‑conditioned gate, and gradient‑reversal training to mitigate cohort bias. CALIBRA employs a shrinkage‑based hierarchical logistic layer for probability calibration and split conformal prediction for abstention‑capable prediction sets, achieving competitive performance on a semi‑synthetic three‑cohort benchmark with controlled distribution shift.
By Taimoor Ahmad
arXiv:2608. 16273v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Foresight-England (Foresight-E) is the first national-scale generative foundation model of electronic health records (EHRs), developed as a research pilot strictly for COVID-19 research.
By Simon Ellershaw, Christopher Tomlinson, Zeljko Kraljevic, Spiros Denaxas, Harry Hemingway, Cathie Sudlow, Angela M. Wood, Anoop D. Shah, Richard Dobson
The study introduces a graph‑enhanced framework for discovering disease trajectories and forecasting temporal endpoints using longitudinal EHR data from MIMIC‑IV v3.1. It constructs patient‑specific motifs from consecutive admissions, applies a time‑aware Transformer to select up to 24 motifs per endpoint, and reports modest improvements in micro‑AUPRC and event‑time MAE, with larger gains for events occurring after 730 days. The authors also explore branching‑motif conditioning and GNN‑based edge repair, finding that motifs mainly provide long‑range timing support rather than superior endpoint discrimination or survival prediction.
By Jin-Jia Zheng, Vincent S. Tseng
Mr.Dec is a new Transformer‑decoder model that predicts 30‑day hospital readmission by treating each admission as a chronological sequence of daily multimodal events, integrating Electronic Health Record updates and Chest X‑ray findings. It uses disease‑specific supervised contrastive learning to shape a diagnosis‑aware latent space and preserves day‑level clinical signals that other methods often compress. Experiments on MIMIC‑IV and MIMIC‑CXR datasets show state‑of‑the‑art performance and the model can highlight "Critical Days" for actionable real‑time risk stratification.
By Minjun Kim, Jong Hak Moon
arXiv:2606. 28798v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Objective: ICD codes are central to reimbursement, research, and population health surveillance, yet automated coding systems often struggle to integrate diagnostic signals from both clinical narratives and structured electronic health record (EHR) variables.
By Chengyuan Liu, Xinyue Zhang, Yao Li, Guanting Chen
NOAH is a generative transformer that models the entire multimodal patient journey by integrating bidirectional time and a variational latent space to capture continuous, stochastic clinical trajectories. Trained on over 559 million events from 431,000 hospital visits, it processes medical images, time‑series, numeric signals, categorical events, and both structured and unstructured records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting, zero‑shot classification, and counterfactual simulations, yielding strong predictive performance across 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time‑to‑event outcomes.
The study benchmarks tokenization choices for generative medical event models, evaluating quantization granularity, reference-range anchoring, code–value fusion, numeric and temporal encodings, and native versus harmonized event representations. Using Llama and Qwen architectures, 156 models were trained and assessed on early hospitalization data, showing that fusing codes with value deciles and using event-order or admission-relative RoPE embeddings improved predictive performance. The Common Longitudinal Intensive Care Unit Data Format (CLIF) reduced token count by 30.8% while enhancing outcomes in most families.
By Inhyeok Lee, Luke Solo, Michael C. Burkhart, Bashar Ramadan, Sahil Sethi, Sarah Jabbour, William F. Parker, Brett K. Beaulieu-Jones
The paper introduces ICD-Deepresearch, a workflow that combines foundation models for electronic health records (EHR) and language models with medical search and ICD dictionaries to forecast future ICD codes for upcoming clinical encounters. It evaluates candidate code transitions by linking patient evidence, external clinical relations, and exact code semantics within a fixed top‑K budget, using SparseEHR for initial priors, GPT‑5 for complementary forecasts, and a final selection step that validates, deduplicates, and ranks candidates. The method achieves patient‑averaged precision/recall of 24.60/35.09% on MIMIC‑III and 25.14/48.32% on MIMIC‑IV, with physicians rating 51–68% of its retrieved documents as useful, outperforming standalone GPT‑5 web search and Medical Deep Research.
By Junda Wang, Meysam Ghaffari, Akshat Choube, Mohsen Sharifi Renani, Hong Yu, Carlos Morato
arXiv:2605.20292v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Numerical time-series models effectively process irregular electronic health record (EHR) trajectories, but do not expose which temporal patterns s...
By Kwanhyung Lee, Juhwan Choi, Jongheon Kim, Joohyung Lee, Hyeongwon Jang, Jeonguk Lee, Jisoo Jung, Eunho Yang
The paper introduces a compact patient world model that forecasts digital health campaign outcomes by maintaining a latent state per patient and learning exposure‑conditioned dynamics. Evaluated on a large US campaign dataset, the model predicts new‑to‑brand prescription volume with low relative error (2.9% at week‑4 cutoff) compared to much higher errors from baseline classifiers. The study also shows that dense next‑exposure supervision is crucial for accurate forecasts when conversions are rare and highlights limitations in interpreting exposure‑conditioned rollouts causally.
By Yunlong Wang
NOAH is a generative transformer that learns the full multimodal patient journey by integrating bidirectional time and a variational latent space. Trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits, it processes medical images, time‑series, numeric signals, categorical events, and both structured and unstructured records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting, zero‑shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, yielding strong performance on clinical outcomes, ICD chapters, comorbidities, and time‑to‑event prediction.
By Tobias Susetzky, Raphael Rehms, Dmitrii Seletkov, \"Ozg\"un Turgut, Michelle Espranita Liman, Lisa Steinhelfer, Rickmer Braren, Daniel Rueckert