arXiv Machine Learning By Timothy A. Smith, Mariah Pope, Sergey Frolov, Brett Basarab, Daniel Abdi, Paul Madden, Isidora Jankov

Bridging short- and medium-range weather forecasting with machine learning

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The paper introduces Nested‑EAGLE, a 0.25° global weather model with a 6 km refinement over the contiguous United States, designed to merge short‑ and medium‑range forecasts into a single system. It shows lower mean‑squared error for near‑surface and low‑level variables over the U.S. compared to NOAA’s GFS and HRRR, while remaining competitive globally. Although precipitation forecasts are less skillful than HRRR’s deterministic training, Nested‑EAGLE delivers the most accurate storm‑location predictions at longer lead times, with blurred extrema.

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