The paper introduces a dual‑framework Vision Transformer (ViT) method for estimating diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) from sky images in data‑scarce settings. It combines physics‑based atmospheric parameters, a sequential pipeline that first predicts synthetic global horizontal irradiance (GHI), and a dual‑parallel architecture that processes raw and physics‑informed overlay‑enhanced fisheye images. Tested on Chilbolton Observatory data, the approach achieves RMSE within 2–6 W/m² of a ViT trained on a full dataset, demonstrating a scalable, cost‑effective solution for solar resource assessment when long‑term sky imagery is limited.
By David Hamlyn, Sunny Chaudhary, Tasmiat Rahman
arXiv:2608. 11254v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the reliable integration of photovoltaic power into modern electricity grids.
By Yann Fabel, Bijan Nouri, Milon Miah, Niklas Blum, Luis F. Zarzalejo, Julia Kowalski, Robert Pitz-Paal
GateFormer is a vision‑transformer model that forecasts intra‑hour global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from sky images by decomposing the forecast into a trajectory prediction and a delta prediction, then adaptively weighting these two outputs. It incorporates recent GHI measurements into the visual token stream, enabling self‑attention between image patches and irradiance data. On multiple benchmarks (NREL‑TSI, Chilbolton, SIRTA) GateFormer achieves the lowest final‑horizon root‑mean‑square error, outperforming state‑of‑the‑art transformers and demonstrating significant gains during rapid irradiance ramps.
By David Hamlyn, Sunny Chaudhary, Jonathon Hare, Tasmiat Rahman
GateFormer is a dual‑decoder Vision Transformer that forecasts intra‑hour global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from sky images by embedding observed GHI into the visual token stream and predicting both a future GHI trajectory and the final‑horizon change. The two predictions are adaptively weighted in prediction space, with magnitude‑ and direction‑supervision to reduce remaining error. On multiple benchmarks, GateFormer achieves the lowest final‑horizon RMSE, outperforming state‑of‑the‑art transformers and showing significant gains especially during positive ramp events.
arXiv:2610.27155v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Accurate multi-horizon photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for grid stability, energy scheduling, and the efficient operation of PVbattery...
By Shafi Bin Sultan, Sabik Bin Sultan, Mohammad Tajrian Arafat Alvi, Rayhanul Islam Sony, Abdulah Al Numan
arXiv:2606. 06102v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ultra-short-term solar irradiance prediction is critical for photovoltaic system dispatch and power grid stability.
By Jingxin Zhang Xiaoqin Wang