arXiv Machine Learning

FATE: Focal-modulated Attention Encoder for Multivariate Time-series Forecasting

arXiv:2408. 11336v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Climate change stands as one of the most pressing global challenges of the twenty-first century, with far-reaching consequences such as rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and increasingly extreme weather patterns.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 18

SETTer: Sparse-Encoder Transformer for Long-term Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

SETTer is a transformer-based model designed for long‑term multivariate time‑series forecasting. It introduces decoupled self‑attention and hybrid masking to better handle high dimensionality and complex relationships, while adding explainable structures to highlight discriminative patterns. Experiments on real‑world benchmarks show that SETTer outperforms state‑of‑the‑art models in 88% of scenarios.

By Abraham Ezema, Chijioke Eze, Ferdinanda Ponci, Antonello Monti
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 1

Season-Aware Hybrid Convolutional-Transformer for Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration Forecasting

The paper presents a hybrid Convolutional‑Transformer model for forecasting Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on a monthly basis. It combines convolutional encoding for spatial features with factorised self‑attention to capture spatio‑temporal dependencies, and introduces two seasonal prior mechanisms: a month‑aware positional encoding and a seasonal temporal bias. Experiments show the model outperforms convolutional and recurrent baselines, with ablation studies confirming the benefits of the seasonal priors for both short‑ and long‑horizon predictions.

By Danyang Li, John Taylor, Thang Bui, Quanling Deng
arXiv AI
Jun 30

UniMamba: A Unified Spatial-Temporal Modeling Framework with State-Space and Attention Integration

arXiv:2604. 16325v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multivariate time series forecasting is fundamental to numerous domains such as energy, finance, and environmental monitoring, where complex temporal dependencies and cross-variable interactions pose enduring challenges.

By Xingsheng Chen, Xianpei Mu, Deyu Yi, Yilin Yuan, Xingwei He, Bo Gao, Regina Zhang, Pietro Lio, Siu-Ming Yiu
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Sep 17

SETTer: Sparse-Encoder Transformer for Long-term Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

SETTer is a transformer-based model designed for long‑term multivariate time‑series forecasting. It introduces decoupled self‑attention and hybrid masking to better capture short‑ and long‑term patterns across time and channel dimensions, while adding simple explainable structures to highlight discriminative patterns. Experiments on real‑world benchmarks show that a single‑layer SETTer outperforms state‑of‑the‑art models in 88% of scenarios.

arXiv AI
Jun 18

A Hybrid LSTM--Vision Transformer Architecture for Predicting HRRR Forecast Errors

arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.

By David Aaron Evans, Jay C. Rothenberger, Kara J. Sulia, Nick P. Bassill, Chris D. Thorncroft
arXiv AI
Sep 2

Global Attention with Linear Complexity for Exascale Generative Data Assimilation in Earth System Prediction

The paper introduces STORM, a one‑stage generative AI framework that reformulates Earth system data assimilation as diffusion‑based Bayesian posterior sampling, replacing costly PDE ensemble forecasts with scalable AI inference. STORM employs a spatiotemporal transformer with a global‑attention algorithm that reduces computational complexity from quadratic to linear, enabling high‑resolution, long‑context modeling. The system scales to 74,400 GPUs on Frontier, achieving 96–99 % strong‑scaling efficiency and up to 6 ExaFLOPs sustained BF16 throughput, while supporting 32,768‑member ensembles for uncertainty quantification in just 34 seconds on 4,096 GPUs, and demonstrates improved hurricane tracking and climate reanalysis accuracy.

By Xiao Wang, Zezhong Zhang, Isaac Lyngaas, Hong-Jun Yoon, Jong-Youl Choi, Siming Liang, Janet Wang, Hristo G. Chipilski, Ashwin M. Aji, Feng Bao, Peter Jan van Leeuwen, Dan Lu, Guannan Zhang