CITRAS: Covariate-Informed Transformer for Time Series Forecasting
arXiv:2503. 24007v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In time series forecasting, covariates represent external factors that influence target variables.
arXiv:2408. 11336v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Climate change stands as one of the most pressing global challenges of the twenty-first century, with far-reaching consequences such as rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and increasingly extreme weather patterns.
arXiv:2503. 24007v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In time series forecasting, covariates represent external factors that influence target variables.
SETTer is a transformer-based model designed for long‑term multivariate time‑series forecasting. It introduces decoupled self‑attention and hybrid masking to better handle high dimensionality and complex relationships, while adding explainable structures to highlight discriminative patterns. Experiments on real‑world benchmarks show that SETTer outperforms state‑of‑the‑art models in 88% of scenarios.
arXiv:2607. 04117v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: ERA5 seasonal climate variables contain predictive information about future glacier retreat beyond what satellite imagery alone provides, yet existing deep learning methods focus on mapping current boundaries rather than forecasting future ones.
The paper presents a hybrid Convolutional‑Transformer model for forecasting Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on a monthly basis. It combines convolutional encoding for spatial features with factorised self‑attention to capture spatio‑temporal dependencies, and introduces two seasonal prior mechanisms: a month‑aware positional encoding and a seasonal temporal bias. Experiments show the model outperforms convolutional and recurrent baselines, with ablation studies confirming the benefits of the seasonal priors for both short‑ and long‑horizon predictions.
arXiv:2604. 16325v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multivariate time series forecasting is fundamental to numerous domains such as energy, finance, and environmental monitoring, where complex temporal dependencies and cross-variable interactions pose enduring challenges.
arXiv:2607. 27418v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-term ship trajectory prediction is a fundamental capability for maritime safety and autonomous navigation.
arXiv:2512. 03606v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable.
SETTer is a transformer-based model designed for long‑term multivariate time‑series forecasting. It introduces decoupled self‑attention and hybrid masking to better capture short‑ and long‑term patterns across time and channel dimensions, while adding simple explainable structures to highlight discriminative patterns. Experiments on real‑world benchmarks show that a single‑layer SETTer outperforms state‑of‑the‑art models in 88% of scenarios.
arXiv:2607. 02437v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting remains challenging when the underlying data contain rare but critical extreme events.
arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.
The paper introduces STORM, a one‑stage generative AI framework that reformulates Earth system data assimilation as diffusion‑based Bayesian posterior sampling, replacing costly PDE ensemble forecasts with scalable AI inference. STORM employs a spatiotemporal transformer with a global‑attention algorithm that reduces computational complexity from quadratic to linear, enabling high‑resolution, long‑context modeling. The system scales to 74,400 GPUs on Frontier, achieving 96–99 % strong‑scaling efficiency and up to 6 ExaFLOPs sustained BF16 throughput, while supporting 32,768‑member ensembles for uncertainty quantification in just 34 seconds on 4,096 GPUs, and demonstrates improved hurricane tracking and climate reanalysis accuracy.
arXiv:2605. 13181v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Precipitation nowcasting remains challenging due to the highly localized, rapidly evolving, and heterogeneous nature of atmospheric dynamics.