The paper introduces SolCloudLLM, a large language model–based framework that fuses sky‑image patches with time‑series data through bidirectional multimodal fusion for short‑term solar forecasting. Experiments on the SIRTA and SKIPP'D datasets show that SolCloudLLM outperforms existing baselines, achieving up to a 25.4% reduction in mean squared error, especially under cloudy conditions and in few‑shot scenarios.
arXiv:2608. 11254v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the reliable integration of photovoltaic power into modern electricity grids.
arXiv:2606. 06102v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ultra-short-term solar irradiance prediction is critical for photovoltaic system dispatch and power grid stability.
arXiv:2411. 10921v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate forecasts of distributed solar generation are necessary to maintain grid stability amid the increased uptake of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems.
SolarBench is an open global benchmark for image-based solar nowcasting that consolidates over six million sky and satellite images from 11 sites across a decade, paired with irradiance, PV output, and atmospheric data. The benchmark includes a toolbox for reproducible data access, processing, model development, and evaluation. Using SolarBench, the authors benchmark representative models, uncover a gap between average forecasting accuracy and the capture of rapid solar fluctuations, quantify predictability across cloud regimes, and demonstrate data‑efficient adaptation to new PV systems.
arXiv:2609.15087v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Most time series forecasting benchmarks remain numerical-centric and provide limited support for evaluating contextual information that shapes real-w...
The paper introduces CloudCast v2, a machine‑learning model that forecasts 12‑hour cloud‑cover from satellite‑derived initial conditions. Trained first on the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis to learn cloud‑evolution dynamics, it is then adapted to real satellite data using conditional flow matching, a generative technique that conditions noise on observed cloud fields and NWP inputs. CloudCast v2 achieves a 10 % reduction in mean absolute error compared to its predecessor and surpasses it in spatial skill after 3–6 hours, extending useful forecasting beyond the typical 1–3‑hour nowcasting window while preserving satellite‑level spatial detail.
arXiv:2607. 04117v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: ERA5 seasonal climate variables contain predictive information about future glacier retreat beyond what satellite imagery alone provides, yet existing deep learning methods focus on mapping current boundaries rather than forecasting future ones.
AsyncCouple-Flow introduces a new framework for multi‑modal spatio‑temporal forecasting that tackles three key challenges: differing sampling rates, missing modalities, and autoregressive error accumulation. It employs a Modality‑Aware Token Sparsification module to produce equal‑length sequences, an Asynchronous Cross‑Modal Coupling Graph to fuse data under arbitrary asynchrony and missingness, and a Flow‑Matching Forecasting Head that models multi‑step prediction as a conditional ODE. Experiments on weather and traffic datasets demonstrate that the method outperforms state‑of‑the‑art baselines and remains robust even when up to two modalities are missing.
arXiv:2606. 08563v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While global data-driven models excel at predicting continuous atmospheric variables, three-dimensional hydrometeor forecasting remains challenging due to the zero-inflated, long-tailed distributions of these variables.
The paper presents a hierarchical ensemble for short‑term photovoltaic power forecasting that fuses temporal neural models, historical analogs, state climatology, and gradient‑boosted trees with horizon‑specific convex weights. Solar geometry and numerical weather forecasts provide expected generation conditions, while a calibration step corrects recent bias using historical forecast errors. Evaluated on PVDAQ and GEFCom2014 data, the ensemble reduces mean absolute error by up to 6% compared to strong individual models, though its advantage varies with dataset and horizon.
arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.
arXiv:2602. 17683v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture.