FM‑Bench is a new benchmark that tests large language model agents on long‑horizon decision making by having them run a football club for 20 in‑game years. The agent must manage a squad, trade players, negotiate contracts, invest in facilities and youth, set lineups, and respond to a board that can fire it, all using 26 tools and roughly 340–400 decision stops, with a deterministic engine producing a final score without human or LLM judges. The benchmark includes a solo track where each of 15 frontier models competes against a frozen scripted world, and an Arena track where the same models plus a scripted anchor share one 20‑year world, allowing the first head‑to‑head evaluation at this scale. whyItMatters":"FM‑Bench provides a rigorous, large‑scale test of sustained, cumulative decision‑making in language‑model agents, revealing that managerial strategy—not computational scale or vendor—drives performance over long horizons."
Language model agents now execute bounded tasks reliably. Whether they can sustain effective decision-making over long horizons, where actions have cumulative consequences and the environment responds to their choices, remains largely unmeasured.
arXiv:2607. 17765v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce WC2026-Agents, a benchmark and dataset for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as autonomous forecasting agents on real, future events.
arXiv:2607. 02255v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Memory for a long-horizon LLM agent is a contract about what each future decision is allowed to see.
arXiv:2606. 29771v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM agents are increasingly cast as autonomous portfolio managers, and benchmarks have moved from financial question-answering to sequential trading.
arXiv:2608. 00355v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Progress in large language models is often summarized using a single scalar measure, such as a time horizon, a latent ability estimate, or an aggregate benchmark score.
arXiv:2608. 09586v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Independent Chip Model (ICM) converts tournament chips into reference prize equity, and policies are routinely constructed against those values.
Football score forecasting combines a strong statistical core with a difficult contextual edge. Dynamic Poisson-family models estimate team strength, expected goals, and coherent score probabilities, but do not directly understand roles, tactical matchups, motivation, or how a first goal changes behaviour.
arXiv:2607. 05297v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent LLM agents tackle increasingly long-horizon, open-ended tasks, and external skills, reusable procedural knowledge supplied to the agent, further extend this capability.
arXiv:2606. 11522v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Autoresearch agents now propose, evaluate, and select scientific candidates against a metric, and that metric is usually an aggregate reduced over a heterogeneous space of regions, slices, or cohorts.
arXiv:2608. 20318v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recursive self-improvement (RSI) asks whether an AI system can improve the process that produces AI systems, so that the next system inherits the improvement.
arXiv:2608. 05030v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Football score forecasting combines a strong statistical core with a difficult contextual edge.
arXiv:2607. 29577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Games and simulators make valuable benchmarks by turning decisions into measurable outcomes, but many current suites under-test rules-rich tactical reasoning: the ability to choose well when geometry, timing, resources, objectives, and rule interactions all matter at once.