Football score forecasting combines a strong statistical core with a difficult contextual edge. Dynamic Poisson-family models estimate team strength, expected goals, and coherent score probabilities, but do not directly understand roles, tactical matchups, motivation, or how a first goal changes behaviour.
arXiv:2608. 05030v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Football score forecasting combines a strong statistical core with a difficult contextual edge.
arXiv:2607. 18084v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predicting a football match before kickoff requires more than knowing past results: a model must use changing information and make a clear prediction before the answer is available.
Predicting a football match before kickoff requires more than knowing past results: a model must use changing information and make a clear prediction before the answer is available. We present WorldCupArena, a dynamic benchmark for language models and deep-research agents.
arXiv:2607. 24573v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) increasingly support decisions about uncertain future events, yet evaluating their ability to forecast real-world outcomes remains difficult.
arXiv:2608. 03416v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules.
arXiv:2607. 17765v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce WC2026-Agents, a benchmark and dataset for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as autonomous forecasting agents on real, future events.
arXiv:2607. 26061v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pre-match tactical decision-making in professional football relies heavily on subjective expert analysis and identity-based scouting systems that cannot generalize to unseen teams.
arXiv:2603. 15212v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Evaluating football player transfers is challenging because player actions depend strongly on tactical systems, teammates, and match context.
arXiv:2607. 06495v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Live sports commentary is grounded generation under a deadline: statements concern real, named athletes, the grounding state changes every few seconds, and no reference text exists at generation time.
arXiv:2607. 14616v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vision--language models have become increasingly capable of interpreting visual scenes, but it remains unclear whether they can use information to make strategically effective decisions.
arXiv:2607. 11548v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Spatial football metrics such as pitch control assume access to the positions of all 22 players, yet the most widely available source of positional data -- the broadcast main camera -- shows only 10-16 of them at any moment.
arXiv:2606. 11120v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We recast pass evaluation in football (soccer) as a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-like evaluation problem whose components mostly exist in the literature under different names: a value model (possession value), a world model (multi-agent trajectories with ball interactions), and a policy over counterfactual actions (sampling pass variants with noise).