arXiv:2606. 00795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Metamodels for discrete-event simulations approximate the behavior of simulation models without running expensive simulations.
arXiv:2607. 26787v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are widely used as decision-making models, commonly specified over factored state spaces through state variables and their valuations.
arXiv:2606. 29681v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic model checking for Markov decision processes (MDPs) provides quantitative guarantees, but often offers limited insight into why undesired outcomes occur.
arXiv:2606. 27286v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mechanistic epidemiological models are widely used to support infectious disease forecasting and public-health decision making.
arXiv:2606. 06288v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal representation learning aims to infer the high-level latent causal concepts that give rise to observed low-level measurements.
arXiv:2605. 15133v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines.
Probabilistic model checking for Markov decision processes (MDPs) provides quantitative guarantees, but often offers limited insight into why undesired outcomes occur. Probability-raising (PR) causality addresses this by identifying states whose visitation increases the probability of reaching designated states.
arXiv:2608. 15645v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transporting a causal conclusion from a source study population to a target one is a fundamental problem in causal inference.
arXiv:2606. 27711v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a neural network-based framework for learning time series estimators through a process we term decision-theoretic pretraining.
arXiv:2607. 18226v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal discovery methods have shown strong performance in temporal systems, but they typically rely on regular and discrete lag structures, limiting their applicability to regularly sampled data.
Causal discovery methods have shown strong performance in temporal systems, but they typically rely on regular and discrete lag structures, limiting their applicability to regularly sampled data. However, many real-world tasks require dealing with irregularly sampled streams of events, such as sensor streams, healthcare data, and financial transactions.
arXiv:2510. 27544v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Temporal reasoning involves understanding how systems evolve over time through input-driven state transitions.
arXiv:2606. 28225v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal link prediction is usually evaluated by predictive performance on unseen edges, but in probabilistic temporal graphs this criterion can conflate model error with irreducible uncertainty.