arXiv Machine Learning

Discrete Causal Representations from Heterogeneous Domains: A Bayesian Approach with Social Survey Applications

arXiv:2606. 06288v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal representation learning aims to infer the high-level latent causal concepts that give rise to observed low-level measurements.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Causal Inference with Unobserved Confounding: A Mixture Learning Perspective

The paper introduces a mixture‑learning framework for causal inference with unobserved confounding, treating latent confounders as sources of heterogeneity that create mixture structures in observed data. By assuming suitable structural and identifiability conditions, it shows that recovering the mixing distribution and component mechanisms allows estimation of interventional distributions and causal estimands. The authors illustrate the approach with Bernoulli mixture examples, extend it to high‑dimensional exponential‑family mixtures with dependent outcomes, and relate it to panel‑data settings, latent factor models, and synthetic interventions.

By Mansi Sood, Devavrat Shah
arXiv AI
Sep 4

A Computationally Feasible Framework for Causal Probabilistic Explanation

The paper introduces Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI), a framework that blends actual causality (AC) with Pearl’s probability of necessity and sufficiency to provide tractable, causally grounded explanations. PCI reframes explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model, enabling efficient approximation via Monte Carlo sampling. The authors evaluate PCI on synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating consistency with AC, scalability, and applicability to complex continuous systems and large-scale causal machine learning models.

By Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman, Andy Zane, Poorva Garg, Emily Bunnapradist, Sankaran Vaidyanathan, Jack Feser, Drew Lehe, Eli Bingham
arXiv AI
Jun 24

A Survey on Federated Causal Discovery and Inference

arXiv:2606. 23741v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal reasoning, which encompasses the discovery of causal structures and the inference of causal effects, is fundamental to data-driven decision making.

By Xianjie Guo, Yuwei Wang, Guodu Xiang, Xiaoli Tang, Kui Yu, Han Yu, Qiang Yang
arXiv AI
Jun 29

Lifted Causal Inference

arXiv:2606. 28024v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Lifted inference exploits indistinguishabilities in probabilistic graphical models by using a representative for indistinguishable objects, thereby speeding up query answering while maintaining exact answers.

By Malte Luttermann, Tanya Braun, Ralf M\"oller, Marcel Gehrke