Probabilistic model checking for Markov decision processes (MDPs) provides quantitative guarantees, but often offers limited insight into why undesired outcomes occur. Probability-raising (PR) causality addresses this by identifying states whose visitation increases the probability of reaching designated states.
arXiv:2607. 26787v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are widely used as decision-making models, commonly specified over factored state spaces through state variables and their valuations.
By Jule Schmidt, Maximilian Weininger, Clemens Dubslaff, David Parker, Nils Jansen
arXiv:2511. 19849v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recurrence objectives, where a target region must be visited infinitely often, are a fundamental class of specifications for Markov decision processes (MDPs) and form the core of $\omega$-regular and linear temporal logic (LTL) objectives.
By Dominik Wagner, Leon Witzman, Luke Ong
arXiv:2606. 00270v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Shielding is an effective approach to formally guarantee the safety of reinforcement learning agents in Markov decision processes (MDPs).
By Edwin Hamel-De le Court, Thom Badings, Alessandro Abate, Francesco Belardinelli, Francesco Fabiano
arXiv:2602. 23545v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In the real world, planning is often challenged by distribution shifts.
By Matteo Ceriscioli, Karthika Mohan
arXiv:2505. 15274v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Probabilities of causation (PoCs) are fundamental quantities for counterfactual analysis and personalized decision making.
By Xin Shu, Shuai Wang, Ang Li
arXiv:2603. 06946v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many distributional quantities in reinforcement learning are intrinsically joint across actions, including distributions of gaps and probabilities of superiority.
By Ege C. Kaya, Mahsa Ghasemi, Abolfazl Hashemi
arXiv:2608. 07230v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic logic programming is a formalism of statistical relational artificial intelligence that supports causal queries, including interventions from outside the system.
By Zora Wurm, Kilian R\"uckschlo{\ss}, Felix Weitk\"amper
arXiv:2402. 05002v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The partial monitoring (PM) framework provides a theoretical formulation of sequential learning problems with incomplete feedback.
By Maxime Heuillet, Ola Ahmad, Audrey Durand
arXiv:2606. 28225v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal link prediction is usually evaluated by predictive performance on unseen edges, but in probabilistic temporal graphs this criterion can conflate model error with irreducible uncertainty.
By Aniq Ur Rahman
arXiv:2606. 16729v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While there is an extensive body of work characterizing the sample complexity of discounted cumulative-reward MDPs, finite sample analyses for average-reward MDPs have been limited, and most existing works rely on restrictive assumptions such as ergodicity or access to a generative model.
By Jongmin Lee, Ernest K. Ryu, Vaneet Aggarwal
arXiv:2606. 00795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Metamodels for discrete-event simulations approximate the behavior of simulation models without running expensive simulations.
By Pracheta Amaranath, Anant Bhide, David Jensen, Peter Haas