arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 26

Use What You Know: Causal Foundation Models with Partial Graphs

arXiv:2602. 14972v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimating causal quantities traditionally relies on bespoke estimators tailored to specific assumptions.

By Arik Reuter, Anish Dhir, Cristiana Diaconu, Jake Robertson, Ole Ossen, Frank Hutter, Adrian Weller, Mark van der Wilk, Bernhard Sch\"olkopf
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

Large Causal Models for Temporal Causal Discovery

arXiv:2602. 18662v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset.

By Nikolaos Kougioulis, Nikolaos Gkorgkolis, MingXue Wang, Bora Caglayan, Dario Simionato, Andrea Tonon, Ioannis Tsamardinos
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 8

Causal Posterior Estimation

The paper introduces Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a new Bayesian inference technique for simulator models where the likelihood is intractable but simulation is easy. CPE uses flow matching to approximate the posterior while embedding the model’s conditional dependencies directly into the neural network architecture. Experiments show that this hard‑coded structure yields highly accurate inference, matching or surpassing current state‑of‑the‑art methods.

By Simon Dirmeier, Antonietta Mira