Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize financial narratives but may express high confidence when evidence is sparse, stale, or contradictory. This failure is especially consequential in forecasting, where filings, news, prices, volume, and technical signals can disagree.
The paper audits the impact of temporal leakage on financial-news direction prediction across 49,799 articles and 16 feature-model combinations, including TF‑IDF, MiniLM, FinBERT, and fine‑tuned RoBERTa‑large / DeBERTa‑v3‑large, as well as zero/few‑shot and LoRA probes of Llama‑3 and Qwen2.5. Random train‑test splits inflate MCC scores by 1.1× to 6.5×, with larger models and richer features showing greater gains, while end‑to‑end FinBERT fine‑tuning actually increases the gap. Only the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) category shows a positive locked‑test signal under near‑temporal chronological evaluation, with the signal localized to 2024‑2025 European‑tilted M&A semantics and not transferring to a 2009‑2020 U.S. corpus.
arXiv:2607. 16229v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as components of agentic systems that observe, plan, and act.
arXiv:2607. 12233v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language model (LLM) trading agents show promising performance in equity markets, yet remain narrowly focused on US equities with little evidence from live deployment.
arXiv:2509. 13374v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We develop and audit a history-aware financial path generator based on Denoising Levy Probabilistic Models (DLPMs) for conditional equity-index path generation.
arXiv:2607. 12248v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large pretrained time-series models such as TimesFM are attractive for financial forecasting, but raw directional accuracy is a misleading scoreboard in equity markets.
arXiv:2608. 04095v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly used as personalized assistants in high-stakes domains such as financial advising, yet it remains unclear whether they can maintain and update an individualized user model over long horizons.
arXiv:2608.12283v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models can extract richer signals from financial news than fixed sentiment lexicons, and recent work has explored feeding such...
arXiv:2608. 10433v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Temporal reports are increasingly emitted alongside numerical forecasts and are often interpreted as statements about the computation producing those forecasts.
HARN (Hierarchical Associative Resonance Network) is a new event‑driven framework for forecasting financial time series across multiple temporal resolutions. It preserves persistent representations at each temporal level, updating only when a new bar completes, and integrates causal multi‑scale encoding, gated associative memory, cross‑level resonance, and hierarchical evidence aggregation. Experiments on equity, FX, and commodity assets show that HARN matches the forecasting accuracy of single‑timeframe baselines while revealing the impact of each architectural component through ablation studies.
arXiv:2606. 24950v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text.
arXiv:2606. 15640v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Audit risk assessment increasingly benefits from combining heterogeneous evidence sources, yet existing approaches typically produce point predictions without quantifying how well different evidence streams agree.