arXiv:2607. 27224v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: External and synthetic control arms (ECAs) are entering psychiatric drug development, but the field lacks a benchmark that evaluates the properties regulators care about: not only how accurately a method reconstructs untreated trajectories, but whether its uncertainty is calibrated, whether it is robust to the informative observation times common in mental-health records (sicker patients are seen more often), and what false-positive rate it induces in go/no-go trial decisions.
arXiv:2606. 05797v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data.
arXiv:2608. 12805v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Access to clinical data is essential for developing reliable healthcare machine learning systems, but direct use of electronic health records is constrained by privacy regulation, institutional review, data-use agreements, and the risk of re-identification.
arXiv:2608. 08288v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from longitudinal observational data is central to clinical decision support.
arXiv:2607. 27263v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science.
arXiv:2604. 23904v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Synthetic tabular data are often evaluated by distributional similarity, privacy distance, or train-on-synthetic-test-on-real predictive performance, but these criteria do not ensure validity for causal inference.
LongCounsel-8 is a new benchmark suite comprising three datasets with 7,749 five‑session counseling dialogues, each grounded in real client profiles, depression trajectories, symptom compositions, and counseling patterns. The benchmark addresses challenges of longitudinal consistency, empirical grounding of symptom progression, and natural expression of controlled depression states without exposing labels. Experiments show that lower single‑session error does not ensure accurate trend detection, methods perform worse on worsening trajectories, and adding more session history can reduce trend prediction accuracy.
arXiv:2604. 16763v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal inference from electronic health records (EHR) is fundamentally limited by unmeasured confounding: critical clinical states such as frailty, goals of care, and mental status are documented in free-text notes but absent from structured data.
arXiv:2605.20292v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Numerical time-series models effectively process irregular electronic health record (EHR) trajectories, but do not expose which temporal patterns s...
arXiv:2607. 19524v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Federated learning (FL) offers a promising approach to privacy-preserving clinical risk prediction, but its deployment remains limited by restricted data sharing, client heterogeneity, class imbalance, and the lack of realistic tabular electronic health record (EHR) benchmarks.
arXiv:2606. 17113v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Distinguishing causal adverse drug events (ADEs) from spurious correlations remains a central challenge in pharmacovigilance.
arXiv:2602. 23459v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Psychiatric questionnaires are highly context sensitive and often only weakly predict subsequent symptom severity, which makes the prognostic relationship difficult to learn.
arXiv:2607. 04648v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Depression screening from large-scale behavioral data is challenged by fragmented circadian indicators, limited interpretability, and the lack of intervention-oriented analysis.