arXiv AI

Generative Synthetic Data for Causal Inference: Pitfalls, Remedies, and Opportunities

arXiv:2604. 23904v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Synthetic tabular data are often evaluated by distributional similarity, privacy distance, or train-on-synthetic-test-on-real predictive performance, but these criteria do not ensure validity for causal inference.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 30

Distributional Causal Mediation via Conditional Generative Modeling

arXiv:2605. 01765v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Mediation analysis has traditionally focused on outcome-level summary contrasts, such as mean effects, which may obscure substantial distributional changes induced by complex and nonlinear causal mechanisms.

By Jinlun Zhang, Haoneng Huang, Zishu Zhan, Chunquan Ou
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 31

Psych-ECA: A Reproducible Semi-Synthetic Benchmark for Synthetic Control Arms in Longitudinal Psychiatry

arXiv:2607. 27224v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: External and synthetic control arms (ECAs) are entering psychiatric drug development, but the field lacks a benchmark that evaluates the properties regulators care about: not only how accurately a method reconstructs untreated trajectories, but whether its uncertainty is calibrated, whether it is robust to the informative observation times common in mental-health records (sicker patients are seen more often), and what false-positive rate it induces in go/no-go trial decisions.

By Aakash Bhagat, Shashank Choudhary
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

Synthetic but Not Realistic: The Evaluation Challenge in Generative Modelling for Structured Electronic Medical Records

arXiv:2606. 08903v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Synthetic healthcare data are widely proposed as privacy-preserving substitutes for real patient data, yet their evaluation remains dominated by statistical similarity and predictive performance that do not reflect clinical validity.

By Nicholas I-Hsien Kuo, Blanca Gallego, Louisa Jorm