arXiv Machine Learning By Abisoye Abidakun, Mingjun Zhong, Georgios Leontidis

Causal State-Space Model for Causal Inference: Estimating Longitudinal Individual Treatment Effects

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arXiv:2608. 08288v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from longitudinal observational data is central to clinical decision support.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 31

Psych-ECA: A Reproducible Semi-Synthetic Benchmark for Synthetic Control Arms in Longitudinal Psychiatry

arXiv:2607. 27224v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: External and synthetic control arms (ECAs) are entering psychiatric drug development, but the field lacks a benchmark that evaluates the properties regulators care about: not only how accurately a method reconstructs untreated trajectories, but whether its uncertainty is calibrated, whether it is robust to the informative observation times common in mental-health records (sicker patients are seen more often), and what false-positive rate it induces in go/no-go trial decisions.

By Aakash Bhagat, Shashank Choudhary