Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, but pooled calibration averages over heterogeneous regions and can mask regional undercoverage in safety-critical subgroups. We introduce Self-Organized Conformal Prediction (SOCP), a calibration scheme that discovers input-space groups with a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) and, at test time, draws a local calibration buffer from the query's best-matching unit (BMU) cell or a fixed grid neighborhood.
arXiv:2505. 08784v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety.
By Abhineet Agarwal, Fange Xiao, Rebecca Barter, Omer Ronen, Boyu Fan, Bin Yu
arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.
By Anton Conrad, Rustam Isaev, Denis Belomestny, Eric Moulines, Sergey Samsonov
arXiv:2607. 18088v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Standard evaluation of many recognition systems contains distribution shift by construction, since benchmarks place disjoint conditions in the training and test splits.
By Weijia Han, Lisha Qu
arXiv:2602. 22432v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty.
By Vagner Santos, Victor Coscrato, Luben Cabezas, Rafael Izbicki, Thiago Ramos
arXiv:2606. 28598v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Prediction sets should have high coverage to be useful, but some coverage notions are more practically relevant than others.
By Aabesh Bhattacharyya, Tiffany Ding, Rina Foygel Barber
arXiv:2606. 15217v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline model-based optimization (MBO) proposes candidates by optimizing a surrogate trained on a fixed historical dataset.
By Seungjin Choi
arXiv:2608. 07795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Prediction intervals for multi-modal regression with tabular variables, text, images, or other input sources are difficult to calibrate when those sources disagree or one is missing.
By Ilia Azizi
arXiv:2607. 26577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) of Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s and its variants are the standard approach to online conformal prediction under distribution shift, but they suffer from three fundamental limitations.
By Rahul Vaze
arXiv:2607. 24074v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present MiSS, a black-box, query-based framework for explaining 3D point cloud classifiers through perturbation-relative sufficiency reasoning.
By Mengda Xing (UA, CRIL), Jean-Marie Lagniez (UA, CRIL)
arXiv:2607. 02055v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Performance evaluation in AI systems commonly assumes that random dataset splits produce independent and identically distributed (i.
By Prathamesh Patil, Arpit Jain, Aswanth Krishnan
arXiv:2506. 01486v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Data imbalance persists as a pervasive challenge in regression tasks, introducing bias in model performance and undermining predictive reliability.
By Jelke Wibbeke, Sebastian Rohjans, Andreas Rauh