arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

Isotonic Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.

By Daniel Bensimon, Sean Xiang Yu, Eric D. Kolaczyk, Archer Y. Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 9

Conformal Prediction under Partial Verification

The paper introduces a partial verification approach for conformal prediction that yields the same prediction sets as full verification. It defines calibration certificates—minimal verified information needed to set the conformal threshold—and presents a coordinated verification procedure. The method reduces verification cost by 15–82% compared to sequential verification while maintaining identical prediction sets.

By Zijun Yu, Yu Gu, Vahid Partovi Nia, Masoud Asgharian